Amsterdam — Discussing the gap between the declared revenues from gold production in Sudan - which amounts to 70 tonnes - and the real economic return to the state, its impact on the trade balance, and the exchange rate, requires a great deal of information, former Sudanese Minister of Energy and Mining, Khairy Abdelrahman Ahmed, says in an interview with Radio Dabanga, however, "information has become very scarce from the current Ministry of Finance, especially with the emergency economy due to the ongoing war."
In an interview with Radio Dabanga, Ahmed adds that assuming the entire quantity is exported at the global gold price, the value of 70 tons is estimated at approximately $5 billion. He points out that, within the state's overall budget of around $36 billion, this figure represents less than 7% of the total budget.
He questions the announced information that the budget deficit had reached 10 per cent, and says that he expects it to be much higher than that due to the large spending on the war. He continues, saying: "Even if the revenue from the 70 tons of gold were exported in full and included in the state budget, it would not cover the existing budget deficit." He continues, saying: "Even the large income announced by the mining company does not cover the budget, especially with the current war expenses."
Digitisation of production sectors:
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Speaking about digitising all gold production processes, the energy sector expert says that it is theoretically possible, but he conditions its success on it being linked to all state institutions. He saw it as impossible to implement the digitisation project in isolation from the rest of the other sectors, especially those that are linked to the same production processes, which are the infrastructure sectors.
He reveals that the project to digitise the productive sectors was originally proposed within the framework of the e-government program, as part of the transitional government plan headed by Abdullah Hamdok, but all the funding that was related to this project was completely stopped.
He told Radio Dabanga that the Sudanese Minerals Company's own report indicates that out of the total of 70 tons announced and "celebrated," there are approximately 60 tons, or about 58 tons specifically, that came from traditional production as the largest and most extensive volume within the announced production, questioning how there can be talk of digitisation, indicating that it "does not assess the situation," at a time when traditional production is based on individual and popular efforts, and does not mostly enter into the known organisational procedures and steps of the production process.
Investing in mining:
In the interview with Radio Dabanga, Ahmed discusses the types of investments in the mining sector, explaining that the current model, or the one previously adopted by the Salvation Government (the former regime), is based on a partnership agreement between the investor and the state, whereby the state participates with the investor in the exploration and production agreement simultaneously. He adds that while this model of agreement exists, it is not the ideal model.
He believes that the ideal form originally assumes that a contract is made with the investor at the beginning to carry out surveying and studying procedures for the area or square granted to him, and to extract all information related to the agreed depths, including the types of minerals, their nature and quantities.
Ahmed adds that, based on the report submitted by the investor after the exploration phase, a different production agreement is entered into, in which case the investor is a partner in the return.
He points out that what is currently happening with regard to investments is that the state is granted concession blocks through joint or merged agreements, combining exploration and production at the same time.
Ahmed further highlights that the main concern is achieving a return on production, expressing his regret that the investor is looking for the fastest and closest ways to achieve this production, noting that he is turning to investing in mining waste "Karta", by buying it to extract production from it, which provides him with a regular income without the need to carry out real exploration work, or to be satisfied with very weak exploration work, indicating that this is the prevailing pattern currently.
He says that besides investment in concessions, there are other methods of production, including production through waste, traditional production, and local production, noting that these are the different types of investments that exist in the mining sector.
Stock market:
Ahmed explains to Radio Dabanga that the main objective of establishing the gold exchange is to link local production to global markets in the fastest and shortest way, ensuring that all local producers deliver or deal through the exchange in selling their gold production, thus reducing opportunities for smuggling.
He points out that smuggling, in all cases, ends either through intermediaries and brokers or through access to global markets, noting that if the stock exchange is directly linked to the global market, there is no reason to engage in the risks of smuggling and to commit legal violations.
Ahmed states that if the government lacks the capacity to control and encourage producers to engage directly with the stock exchange, thereby transparently disclosing their production--whether they are formal, informal, or traditional investors--then the stock exchange will not be truly effective. He explains that its effectiveness depends on the existence of comprehensive policies, not simply imposing its existence. It cannot be limited to announcing the establishment of a stock exchange and expecting producers to participate through it.
The spokesperson stresses that the most important thing of all is to activate the laws regulating work in this sector, foremost among them the Investment in Minerals Law issued in 2015, which is supposed to be activated to be the law that governs the entire mining sector, but in practice this does not exist.
In concluding his interview with Radio Dabanga, he says that the report issued by the Sudanese Minerals Company was intended to be more of a celebration than a genuine assessment of the realities of the mining sector and its issues, noting that this sector has become a major burden on the Sudanese state, especially with regard to the environmental issues it imposes on the Sudanese people.
The former energy minister expresses his regret that unregulated mining has destroyed vast areas of agricultural land, noting that some areas are threatened by water pollution. He also points to the licensing of cyanide plants near villages along the Nile River, which have become a major threat to human and animal life, and even to farmers. He states that these issues should have been addressed more thoroughly in the annual report, along with the presentation of concrete solutions proposed by the government.
Experts: The government is merely a recipient, and its share of gold production revenues does not exceed 8%.
Over the past two days, the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company Limited announced a significant increase in gold production, reaching 70 tons, representing 113% of its 2025 performance report and exceeding its target for that year. This marks the highest production level in the past five years. Meanwhile, total public revenues reached 1.087 trillion Sudanese pounds, achieving 132% of the planned target for the year.
Every year, the reports issued by the Sudanese company regarding the quantities of gold produced raise widespread controversy about the true figures for gold production, while international reports reveal a wide gap between what is actually produced and what is exported, and officially records limited figures for production and exports.
Observers question these figures because this "production boom" and its returns have not been reflected in people's livelihoods or in the trade balance and currency prices, and the economic situation remains stagnant, while all the gold revenues go towards financing the war.
Observers believe that the gold sector continues to suffer from smuggling and corruption at all levels of the state apparatus, inefficient oversight, and the failure of state policies to prevent smuggling and benefit from the revenues.
Production of 70 tons of gold and export of 12.5:
For his part, economist Dr. Wael Fahmy says in an interview with Radio Dabanga that the final report issued by the company on December 28, 2025, indicates that the actual gold production reached 70.10 tons during the year, compared to what was planned at about 62 tons, an increase of 8 tons in actual production, equivalent to 113%.
He adds that the report also indicates that the sources of this production during the year came from the traditional sector, which contributed the largest share with 58.4 tons, waste treatment companies with 5.7 tons, and concession companies with 6 tons. This contributed to public revenues of approximately 1.1 trillion Egyptian pounds.
He explained to Radio Dabanga that what was exported did not exceed 12.5 tons, equivalent to 1.3 billion US dollars, through official governmental and banking channels, while other reports indicate that the remaining quantities were traded locally or smuggled through unofficial channels.
The economist points out that gold contributed more than 65% of total Sudanese exports, after agricultural and livestock exports declined due to the war, while gold revenues, as we mentioned, amounted to about $1.3 billion, without addressing the growing deficit resulting from increased strategic imports.
Regarding the replenishment of the Bank of Sudan's international reserves, Fahmy says: According to the report, the bank adopted a policy of acquiring gold in kind by purchasing it with Sudanese pounds. This helped alleviate pressure on reserves to support the Sudanese pound. The Bank of Sudan also mandated that exporters repatriate their entire export proceeds within 30 days, which contributed to providing foreign currency liquidity to finance strategic import operations.
Fahmy believes that there is relative stability in the reserves, according to the report, which prevents a complete collapse of the cash reserves, although they are not sufficient to increase them significantly, given that most of the revenues are still consumed immediately to finance the bill for strategic commodities such as wheat, fuel, and others.
The gap between the producer and the source:
Economic expert Dr. Wael Fahmy says: Despite this, foreign reports also indicate that the volume of gold exported to them as recipient countries of Sudanese gold is greater than what is actually produced, by more than 70 tons, for example.
According to these reports, Fahmy says that Egypt alone imported approximately 60 tons of gold from northern Sudan, including unregistered gold, while the UAE imported more than 29 tons between 2020 and 2025. Exports to Chad amounted to 18 tons, and to Libya, nine tons. There are no estimates for the quantities received by South Sudan and Eritrea, nor for other unspecified quantities received by countries such as Switzerland and China.
He adds that the total amount exported practically exceeds 130 to 160 tons. He explains that this means the actual production, if the 70 tons traded domestically are deducted, and points out that exports are always less than actual production because the amount actually traded within Sudan is not accounted for.
Accordingly, Fahmy believes, according to the report, that the facts may exceed much of what has been circulated, and he continued: It can be said that the actual production volume may range between 180 and 200 tons or more for the actual product.
It is likely that the traditional sector in particular does not record what has actually been produced, and this is a phenomenon known to citizens and experts alike, including the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, which does not record all the quantities actually produced.
According to Fahmy, reports indicate that if the total imports of Sudanese gold were combined, 160 tons would be a substantial figure, double the amount reported in the official Sudanese Mineral Resources Company report, which estimated production at approximately 70.1 tons. This suggests that the countries' reported imports of Sudanese gold exceed, or are at least double, the actual production figures reported by the Sudanese company.
Capital flight:
Returning to the government report, as economist Dr. Wael Fahmy says: "We examined the reasons for the increase of eight tons over the planned target of 62 tons. We find that these reasons are almost clear, represented by the stability and security of the gold-producing states, and the migration of capital affected by the war in their states to investment in the mining sector in the safe states.
It is believed that among the reasons for the increase in production are also the facilitation of export procedures through flexible policies, the expansion of waste processing (waste), and the government's policy of monitoring this production through digitalization. These are considered to be among the five most prominent factors identified in various reports.
However, he says: There remains a significant challenge due to this vast difference in figures between the countries' reports on their imports of Sudanese gold, compared to the report of the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, and this difference is almost more than double what the Sudanese reports have announced.
Fahmy points out that this step requires significant review or drastic measures to determine how to control this gold and reduce the massive smuggling of this quantity produced in Sudan. According to some reports, if the Sudanese government were able to control this gold, it would achieve a trade surplus, eliminating the need for borrowing and many other necessities, as some reports have suggested.
Accordingly, the economist believes that it would have been better to have a fully monitoring force for the actual production of gold in safe states, or in states where gold is produced.
Between the advertiser and the producer:
Fahmy says: Of course, we cannot limit the 140 to 160 tons of gold exports according to reports from importing countries, but these quantities also include gold exported from areas under the control of the Rapid Support Forces.
He adds that these areas, of course, are not separated within international reports, as exports are listed in the name of Sudan and they deal with Sudan as one country, without distinguishing between the areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces and the areas controlled by the Sudanese army.
He explains that what was announced in the report, in his personal opinion, pertains to northern Sudan, where even reports from foreign countries indicate that a large part of these quantities is not registered with the current Sudanese government located in northern Sudan, i.e., in the areas under the control of the army.
According to these reports, Fahmy says there is still a very large quantity that is not accounted for, as the figures indicate that Egypt alone imported about 60 tons, while the UAE imported about 30 tons, which alone is equivalent to about 90 tons, without taking into account the rest of the countries such as Switzerland, China, South Sudan and Eritrea, all of which are not accounted for.
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Combating smuggling:
Accordingly, as economist Dr. Wael Fahmy says in an interview with Radio Dabanga: If we consider the estimated difference to be between 70 and 100 tons, this is about 30 tons that are supposed to have originated from areas under the control of the army, especially since countries like Eritrea and Egypt, in addition to the movement of exports to the Emirates, are within the areas of influence of the Sudanese army.
He says that what raises questions is the lack of accurate counting of these quantities so far, and that there is still a great deal of work to be done by the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company to curb this smuggling more intensively than is currently being done.
Fahmy believes that this reflects the fact that gold smuggling is linked to the processes of recording the quantities produced, where there are clear indications of corruption, whether from some producers or from some weakly controlled elements in the various authorities, with regard to determining the actual size of production.
He concluded that enormous efforts still need to be made, especially under the current war conditions, as the state needs enormous financial resources to fund the ongoing war effort, and if this is not accomplished, "we will remain in a state of perpetual debt," as he put it.
The government is merely a collector:
Economic expert and former head of the Capital Markets Authority in Sudan, Dr. Shawqi Azmi, describes the development in the mining sector as "a good thing," but he believes that Sudan is still far from achieving the "ultimate goal," which is to completely eliminate smuggling, given the flaws in the way gold is produced and the policies in place.
In an interview with Radio Dabanga, he says: "The loss of some important production areas and their control by armed militias confirms what we previously stated, that the actual gold production exceeds 120 tons per year, despite the lack of accurate statistics to confirm or deny this."
He adds: It is worth mentioning that the total value of the gold produced, amounting to 70 tons according to the Ministry of Minerals sources, is worth approximately 9.8 billion US dollars according to global stock exchange prices, which is equivalent to approximately 23.5 trillion Sudanese pounds according to the official price.
He points out that the government's share of it was only about 1.87 billion pounds, which is equivalent to only about 8% of the product, while the private sector and foreign companies enjoy 92% of the production proceeds, which is supposed to necessarily lead to the state entering production through its companies instead of turning into a mere collector of fees or a trader.
He emphasizes that the necessity of establishing a stock exchange with high technical specifications, linked to relevant institutions, along with reducing government-imposed fees, will significantly curb smuggling operations. This will positively impact the exchange rate.
The head of the Capital Markets Authority told Radio Dabanga: "There is a question that arises: why does the trade balance in Sudan suffer from a major imbalance despite the production of 70 tons of gold?" He continued: "There is no answer to this except that the value of the gold does not enter the banking system, which confirms that there is a flaw in the gold export policies."
He adds that this necessitates understanding this flaw, and he believes that the natural thing with the flow of the value of 70 tons of gold into the Sudanese economy is for foreign currency prices to decrease significantly, while the opposite is happening, in fact, the value of the local currency is decreasing.
It is believed that gold production and marketing policies need a corrective revolution in order to positively impact the lives and livelihoods of all the Sudanese people. He continued, saying: "Especially if we know that the value of exported gold exceeds the volume of official imports in Sudan."
