Africa Oil and Gas Regains Momentum Despite Lower Prices

8 January 2026
Daba Finance (Abidjan)

Africa's oil and gas sector ended 2025 on a stronger footing than expected, despite lower crude prices and continued pressure from environmental groups and global investors. Several delayed or suspended projects moved forward, signaling renewed momentum across key producing countries.

TotalEnergies is set for a rebound after its African output fell from 705,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2019 to about 450,000 in 2024. Production is expected to rise in 2026 with the start of Uganda's Tilenga project, estimated at 220,000 barrels per day. The group has also partially restarted the Mozambique LNG project, suspended in 2021, with production expected between 2029 and 2030. Additional projects are planned in Namibia, Algeria, Congo, and Liberia.

ENI advanced its gas strategy by approving the Coral Nord LNG project in Mozambique, due to start in 2028, and expanding Congo LNG. ENI also sold minority stakes in assets in Congo and Ivory Coast to Vitol for up to $2.7 billion.

In Nigeria, Dangote's 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery dominated policy debate, while Algeria, Senegal, and Gabon pursued different paths to regain control and attract investment.

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Key Takeaways

The sector's revival reflects a shift from expansion at any cost toward selective execution. Global oil majors are no longer chasing volume, but Africa remains central for projects with scale, long asset life, and gas-linked demand. Gas has become the anchor. LNG projects in Mozambique, Congo, and Senegal align with Europe's long-term diversification needs and Africa's own power demand.

This supports investment even as oil prices soften. State influence is also rising. Gabon's asset acquisitions, Algeria's licensing rules, and Nigeria's regulatory battles show governments asserting more control over hydrocarbons. This can slow deals but may improve long-term alignment. Africa's oil and gas future is not defined by price cycles alone.

It is shaped by gas demand, infrastructure control, and political will. Projects that survive today's scrutiny are likely to be fewer, larger, and more strategic, setting the tone for the next decade of energy development on the continent.

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