South Africa's white and yellow maize futures have slid to four-year lows as a stronger rand, global oversupply and La Niña rains collide. Cheaper maize should cool food inflation and feed costs, easing pressure on consumers and cattle farmers. But for grain producers, lower prices squeeze already thin, capital-intensive margins.

South African white and yellow maize futures have fallen to four-year lows, a trend driven by the rampant rand, abundant global supplies and the rains of La Niña that will help to douse domestic food inflation with mixed outcomes for the domestic farming sector.

White maize futures are down 35% over the past 12 months to just over R3,400 a tonne, their lowest levels since late 2021. Yellow maize futures have fallen 18% since early last year and are now fetching just under R3,350 a tonne - also their trough since late 2021 - according to data compiled on Barchart.

The trifecta of factors outlined above explain this state of affairs. Last season's bumper crop, lifted by the rains of the La Niña weather pattern that has returned this season - albeit in a weak form - means South Africa has maize to spare.

"We have an ample maize supply. We had the second-largest maze harvest on record in the 2024-25 season, at about 16.44 million tons. This ample maize harvest is behind the recent decline in maize prices," said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.

This year's crop should also be stout, though...