Common Man's Party (CMP) presidential candidate Mubarak Munyagwa Sserunga, popularly known as "Mugati Gwa Butter," has predicted that none of the eight candidates in Uganda's January 15, 2026 elections will secure the constitutionally required 50% plus one vote.
He cited widespread and fragmented national support across multiple contenders as the main reason for a potential first-round stalemate.
Speaking on NBS Morning Breeze on Tuesday, the former Kawempe South Member of Parliament said his extensive nationwide campaign had convinced him that the election would be highly competitive with no outright winner.
"I've traversed this country. I've moved to over 90 districts. I think for the first time, none of the candidates will get the required threshold of 50+1%," Munyagwa said.
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He challenged the prevailing narrative that the election is a two-horse race between incumbent President Museveni (NRM) and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine (NUP).
"The media has tried to portray this as a two-horse race, but what is in the countryside is totally different. This time, wherever you go, at least four presidential candidates have support nationwide," he said.
Munyagwa projected a strong showing for his party, expecting a "two-digit performance" of at least 15% of the national vote, and predicted a similar performance for the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).
He confirmed that his team is preparing for the possibility of a runoff or transition scenario.
The CMP candidate also revealed that he amended his campaign schedule issued by the Electoral Commission based on internal voter mapping, claiming the adjustments helped him make inroads into several NRM strongholds.
Munyagwa openly criticised his father, Hajj Burhan Sserunga, for publicly endorsing President Museveni, describing it as a sign of panic from the ruling party.
"The NRM is in panic that they are losing to me in almost eight districts," he said.
He also downplayed the significance of endorsements for his competitors, including the support of UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima for Kyagulanyi, insisting that it does not affect his campaign.
On campaign financing, Munyagwa disclosed that his presidential bid has been largely self-funded, with expenditures totaling approximately Shs2.5 billion, dismissing claims that he was secretly bankrolled by the state.
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The CMP candidate outlined several policy proposals, including replacing Swahili with French as Uganda's national language, nationalising health and education sectors, and revisiting East African Community protocols to address perceived trade inequalities.
Munyagwa said the CMP emblem, a silver plate or lusanyiya, symbolises unity, inclusiveness, and opposition to greed and corruption.
The party, launched in July 2025, emerged after Munyagwa split from FDC, and he dismissed the possibility of joining NUP, which he described as poorly managed.
With the polls just a day away, Munyagwa joins seven other presidential contenders seeking to retire President Museveni, who has been in power since 1986.
The race also includes Gen. Mugisha Muntu (ANT), Nathan Nandala Mafabi (FDC), Elton Joseph Mabirizi (CP), Bulira Frank Kabinga (RPP), and Robert Kasibante (NPP).
