Addis Abeba — Ethiopia is expected to remain among the five countries with the largest populations in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance by mid-2026, even as overall food assistance needs show a projected decline compared to last year, according to the latest outlook by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) released this month.
FEWS NET projects that between 15.0 and 15.9 million people in Ethiopia, equivalent to 10-15 percent of the national population, will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity in July 2026.
Ethiopia is expected to account for more than 10 percent of total global food assistance needs across FEWS NET-monitored countries, alongside Sudan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Yemen.
"In July, food assistance needs are expected to approach their annual peak," FEWS NET said, warning that Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in the lowlands of East Haraghe due to the protracted impacts of drought," while conflict-affected areas of Amhara, Tigray, and Afar are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
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Drought, conflict, and poor harvests
Early warning signals are already translating into emergency action on the ground. On 21 November 2025, the Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS) activated the second trigger of its Drought Early Action Protocol(EAP) for the Bega (October-December) season, citing severe crop losses, deteriorating pasture conditions, and below-average rainfall in parts of the Oromia Region.
According to ERCS assessments, the activation, designed to cover an early action timeframe of three months, was prompted by conditions aligning with high-risk thresholds under the EAP framework. Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) index analysis showed that more than 50 percent crop yield reduction was recorded in October 2025 across drought-forecasted areas of Oromia.
The most severe impacts were documented in East Bale Zone, particularly in Rayitu and Seweyna woredas, which ERCS identified as among the highest-risk locations under its drought early warning system. These areas met the criteria for escalating from monitoring to action, reinforcing broader warnings by FEWS NET that parts of southern and southeastern Ethiopia remain highly vulnerable to worsening food insecurity ahead of the 2026 lean season.
According to the report, Ethiopia's projected decline in food assistance needs compared to July 2025 does not signal recovery, but rather reflects persistently high vulnerability shaped by overlapping shocks. FEWS NET attributes the situation to poor 2025 meher production, prolonged displacement, and localized conflict, combined with climate-driven pressures in pastoral areas.
In the pastoral south and southeast, FEWS NET expects widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the impacts of a historic late-2025 drought. The agency cautioned that conditions could deteriorate further: "If the gu/genna rains underperform in early 2026, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would likely emerge."
The deteriorating outlook is already manifesting in displacement sites across the Tigray region. Thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) sheltering at the Hitsats IDP center in Tigray are facing death by starvation an escalating hunger crisis, with growing numbers of people in critical condition due to severe food shortages and limited access to medical care.
Families displaced largely from Western Tigray told Addis Standard hunger and lack of medicine have led to repeated fatalities inside the camp. They said the assistance they receive is insufficient, noting that the 15 kilograms of grain distributed intermittently per household fails to meet basic needs. Residents added that nearly half of the ration must be sold to cover milling costs and other essentials, while the type of grain provided is difficult for children, older people, and those with medical conditions to consume.
FEWS NET's latest warning that conflict-driven displacement and constrained humanitarian access continue to amplify food insecurity not only in Tigray, but in Amhara region, where, conflict and drought continue to affect tens of thousands in both Central and South Gondar zones, leading to widespread food insecurity, livestock deaths, and internal migration; and in Afar region, already identified as one of the hotspots of repeated drought where more than 330,000 people were exposed to dire need of emergency food aid, even as national-level projections suggest a marginal decline in overall assistance needs.
Pastoral and agropastoral areas of southern and southeastern Ethiopia, too, remain highly vulnerable, with drought-related displacement and livelihood losses continuing to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and raising the risk of further deterioration if seasonal rains underperform.
In October 2025, the World Food Program (WFP) has rolled out its Drought Anticipatory Action Plan (AAP) in the Somali region, targeting the area's most at risk from the ongoing dry conditions.
The move follows the crossing of early-warning drought thresholds earlier this year, identified through WFP's "AA Map Room," which monitors rainfall, vegetation, and water availability to flag vulnerable districts.
Hudet and Galadi have been prioritized for support, with WFP aiming to reach 9,035 households through multi-purpose cash transfers and livestock feed vouchers. While resources currently limit the intervention to these two districts, early-warning messages are being shared across all 15 high-risk districts to bolster community preparedness.
WFP urged that proactive support is critical to help pastoralist communities cope with persistent droughts and safeguard livelihoods.
In central Oromia, residents of Fentale district in East Shewa Zone say the Karrayyu pastoralist community has been grappling with a severe drought for more than three months, forcing widespread displacement in search of water and pasture.
Residents who spoke to Addis Standard said the drought has affected at least eight kebeles, Haro Qarsa, Dhebiti, Ilala, Qarari, Xuxuxi, Dhaga Hedu, Qobo, and Banti, with many families migrating alongside their livestock as local resources are exhausted. Community members reported no visible government intervention to address the worsening conditions.
In southern Oromia, residents of Borana Zone say the effects of the 2020-2023 drought, which wiped out more than three million livestock, continue to reverberate despite the passage of two subsequent rainy seasons. Members of the zone's largely pastoralist population told Addis Standard that they have yet to recover their herds or livelihoods, leaving many households highly exposed to renewed climatic shocks.
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Pastoralists interviewed stressed that recovery efforts remain insufficient, calling on both government authorities and humanitarian organizations to move beyond crisis-driven responses.
Ethiopia among global hunger hotspots
Globally, FEWS NET projects 130-140 million people, about 13 percent of the population across monitored countries, will require urgent food assistance by July 2026, a level higher than the five-year average and similar to last year's peak
Ethiopia ranks fifth worldwide in absolute numbers, underscoring its continued centrality to the global humanitarian crisis.
While countries such as Yemen and Mozambique are expected to see sharper declines, FEWS NET stresses that Ethiopia's outlook remains fragile, particularly given the risk of renewed drought, conflict-related access constraints, and funding shortfalls.
Warning against complacency
FEWS NET emphasized that its projections already account for planned and likely humanitarian food assistance, meaning that any disruption in aid delivery could rapidly worsen outcomes. The agency defines populations in need as those facing crisis or worse outcomes regardless of whether they are currently receiving assistance, as well as households who would fall into crisis in the absence of aid.
As Ethiopia approaches the mid-2026 lean season, FEWS NET's findings point to a country still trapped between fragile recovery and recurrent crisis, where modest improvements coexist with structural vulnerability and high exposure to climatic and political shocks.
