Key Takeaways
- Djibouti is showing signs of a deepening political crisis, as President Ismail Omar Guelleh considers amending the constitution to pursue a sixth term. This move coincides with growing internal divisions among the ruling elite over his potential successor.
- Rising tensions and conflict among Djibouti's political and tribal elites could undermine the governance system and weaken state institutions, with repercussions for regional stability and the interests of influential regional and international powers.
- Given the current dynamics, three possible trajectories for Djibouti's ruling system can be anticipated: a constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to remain president for a sixth term; a controlled and negotiated transfer of power; or elections that result in an alternative candidate from al-Issa clan assuming office.
- The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the Djiboutian state. The ruling regime must carefully assess its options and demonstrate its ability to withstand domestic and external pressures for reform and democratic transition.
As Djibouti approaches its presidential elections, scheduled for April 2026, the contours of a complex political crisis are emerging within the ruling system. This crisis is rooted in chronic structural fragility, a tribal monopoly on power and deepening political uncertainty. The situation has been further exacerbated by President Ismail Omar Guelleh's intention to amend the constitution to allow himself to run for a sixth term. Compounding this tension are growing divisions within the ruling elite over his possible successor.
These internal disagreements surfaced publicly in September following the resignation of Alexis Mohamed Gueldon, one of President Guelleh's most prominent advisors and his official international spokesperson. Gueldon attributed his resignation to the country's "democratic regression" and "nepotistic practices." He also said that the president had "gone too far" - a clear reference to Guelleh's intention to amend the constitution to remain in power.
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Crisis of power transition in Djibouti
President Guelleh and his regime now face a twofold challenge. The first is constitutional; the 77-year-old president has exceeded the legal age limit for presidential candidacy (75). Despite his declining health, there are indications that he is seeking to replicate a previous amendment to the constitution to remove this limit. In an interview in May, Guelleh left the door open to the possibility of running again - a move that has been met with internal resistance.
The second challenge concerns the identity of President Guelleh's potential successor, an issue that could redefine the country's political and social order. Guelleh's options appear limited, and any move to designate a successor must be carefully calibrated to preserve regime cohesion and safeguard the influence of his family and clan, the Mamasan. In this context, the resignation of Gueldon, who belongs to the same clan, has fueled speculation that the president is grooming his stepson, Naguib Abdullah Kamil, who is affiliated with the Afar community, to succeed him.
Such a move risks intensifying ethnic polarization within the ruling coalition. The al-Issa tribe elite view Kamil as a threat to their historical dominance and privileges. This could prompt them to block his rise and prevent a transfer of leadership to the Afar, potentially through pressure to keep Guelleh at the top of the power pyramid or aligning with another candidate from within the clan, such as Gueldon, known for his extensive connections and political ambitions.
Consolidating authoritarianism or a potential shift?
Given the current dynamics, three possible trajectories can be anticipated for the future of Djibouti's ruling regime and the broader political landscape:
1. A Constitutional amendment to extend Guelleh's Presidency
This scenario appears plausible, given President Guelleh's extensive network of local, regional and international relationships, and his ability to navigate a political framework that enables him to balance and subordinate internal and external dynamics to his own objectives. Such a move would effectively extend the status quo and consolidate the regime's de facto legitimacy and continuity, as well as preserve the interests of the elite without dismantling the tribal structure.
However, this path carries significant risks - including the erosion of the regime's credibility, increased institutional fragility, growing public discontent and a strengthened opposition - which could ultimately destabilize the governance system in the medium term.
2. Engineering a disciplined transition of power
This trajectory would require President Guelleh to recognize the need to lead an internal negotiated process to promote an agreed-upon successor. A likely successor could be his stepson, Kamil, who enjoys support from his influential mother and the Afar elite, or another figure from al-Issa/Mamasan clan. Such a managed transition could enhance the regime's ability to reproduce itself while attracting regional and international endorsement, as it would offer a controlled and stable transfer of power. The key challenge, however, lies in forging internal consensus around the potential heir and reducing ethnic and factional rivalries within the ruling elite.
3. An Electoral process controlled by an Issa candidate
The likelihood of this trajectory increases if al-Issa elite perceive a shift in power dynamics in favor of the Afar - particularly with the potential rise of Kamel. In response, they may push for elections, aiming to ensure victory for one of their prominent figures, thereby safeguarding their influence in the post-Guelleh era.
However this strategy risks deepening divisions and sparking elite-level confrontations, potentially drawing in the military and security forces - especially if the electoral process resembles previous ones marked by allegations of fraud and a lack of meaningful reforms to promote political inclusivity. Such conditions could lead to renewed opposition boycotts and further destabilize the political landscape.
Beyond Guelleh: Local and regional implications
International and regional powers regard Djibouti as a strategic hub for expanding their influence in the wider region encompassing the Red Sea, East Africa, and the western Indian Ocean. These actors have long viewed President Guelleh and his regime as central to safeguarding their interests, relying on the political stability maintained throughout his tenure. As a result, they have often turned a blind eye to his authoritarian practices - such as fragmenting the local opposition and silencing dissent - which have enabled him to solidify his rule for over 25 years.
However, this stability appears tenuous and largely superficial. It does not stem from strong state institutions or effective governance, but rather from delicate tribal dynamics and the concentration of power in a few individuals who shape the country's political landscape. With growing concerns surrounding succession and the ongoing discourse about the post-Guelleh era, there are genuine apprehensions of escalating tensions and conflict among Djibouti's political and tribal elites. Such developments could undermine the governance system and weaken state institutions, pushing the small nation overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait into a period of turbulence, with significant implications for regional stability and the strategic interests of key regional and international players.
An uncontrolled succession crisis in Djibouti would have far-reaching consequences extending far beyond its domestic political sphere. It would worsen regional instability and heighten geopolitical competition among the foreign powers maintaining military bases in the country. This would complicate their operational and strategic decision-making, potentially prompting a recalibration of their military strategies and presence. For example, the establishment of a Chinese military base in 2017 and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have already weakened the US position in Djibouti. Restrictions imposed by Djibouti on US military activities have prompted Washington to explore alternative options, including expanding its presence in Kenya, making it its first non-NATO sub-Saharan African ally, as well as the growing US interest in Somaliland.
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Conclusions
The months ahead will be pivotal in shaping the future of Djibouti. The choice between extending President Guelleh's rule and initiating a political transition represents a delicate balancing act for the regime, which must demonstrate its ability to adapt to both domestic and external pressures for reform and democratic change. The decisions made by Djibouti's leadership, particularly by Guelleh himself, could either pave the way for a new political era or maintain the status quo, with the risk of eventual regime collapse and national instability.
While international and regional partners prioritize sustainable stability and predictable transformation, external support for the ruling clan may no longer guarantee its endurance and political security. In this context, Djibouti's allies - especially France - are expected to play a leading role in diplomatic engagement and soft intervention. Their efforts may focus on encouraging a peaceful transfer of power through internal consensus or a more transparent electoral process, rather than prolonging Guelleh's grip on power. AS
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Editor's Note: This op-ed was first published by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC), an independent think tank based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. It is republished on Addis Standard website under the auspices of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between JAKENN Publishing PLC, the Publisher of Addis Standard tri-lingual publications, and EPC, providing mutual principles for content sharing.
