The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) has regained its dominance in the Busoga sub-region following last week's presidential and parliamentary elections, marking a significant turnaround from the 2021 polls when President Museveni lost the area.
According to official results released by the Electoral Commission, President Museveni garnered 511,826 votes, representing 53.4 percent, to defeat National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, who polled 427,369 votes, or 44.6 percent.
The outcome represents a sharp reversal from the 2021 presidential election, when Museveni secured 404,962 votes against Kyagulanyi's 437,059, effectively conceding the sub-region to the opposition.
Political observers say the improved performance by the ruling party was not accidental. Rather, it resulted from a combination of targeted policy decisions, sustained grassroots mobilisation and carefully timed political interventions that resonated with key voting blocs in Busoga.
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Sugar Law Wins Over Farmers
Sugarcane farming remains the backbone of Busoga's economy, with the crop widely cultivated across the sub-region.
In the lead-up to the 2021 elections, many farmers were frustrated by sharp price fluctuations, with sugarcane prices reportedly dropping to as low as Shs30,000 per tonne. The slump fuelled anger and contributed to protest voting against the NRM.
Towards the end of the current term, however, the government enacted the Sugar Act, a move many farmers view as a long-awaited response to longstanding challenges in the sector.
The law provides for the establishment of a Sugar Council, in which farmers are represented and mandated to oversee and regulate industry affairs.
In addition, President Museveni's pledge to acquire the Mayuge Sugar Factory and hand it over to farmers, enabling them to process their own cane, was widely welcomed. Many growers publicly expressed optimism that these reforms would stabilise prices and safeguard their livelihoods, a sentiment that analysts say translated into renewed electoral support for the NRM.
Disbandment of UPDF Fisheries Unit
Another major factor was President Museveni's decision to disband the UPDF Fisheries Protection Unit, formerly commanded by Lt Col Mercy Tuhakirwa, shortly before the elections.
The unit had been enforcing regulations against illegal fishing but faced sustained criticism over alleged brutality, including reports of fishers being injured, maimed or killed during operations.
Given that Busoga hosts large fishing communities along Lake Victoria, Lake Kyoga and the River Nile, the crackdown had significantly disrupted livelihoods and bred resentment.
The decision to disband the unit was welcomed by many fishers, who interpreted it as a conciliatory gesture. Analysts say the move softened hostility towards the government and translated into votes for Museveni as a sign of appreciation.
Massive NRM Mobilisation Drive
The NRM also rolled out an aggressive and highly coordinated mobilisation campaign across Busoga. Several senior party leaders pitched camp in the sub-region early in the campaign period.
Speaker of Parliament Anita Among traversed districts including Namutumba, Bugiri, Iganga, Mayuge, Jinja and Buyende, while First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga led parallel mobilisation efforts in other parts of the region.
At the same time, the President's Senior Presidential Advisor on Media and Deputy Press Secretary, Hajj Kirunda Farouk, focused on mobilising ghetto youth and boda boda riders, a voting bloc that has become increasingly influential in urban and peri-urban areas.
President Museveni also appointed a high-level regional coordination team headed by former Vice President Dr Specioza Wandira Kazibwe, deputised by former minister Daudi Migereko, and former Kampala Capital City Authority Executive Director Dorothy Kisaka, among others.
The team not only canvassed votes but also mediated internal party disputes, particularly rivalries between the Kadaga and Among camps, helping to maintain cohesion within the party.
Museveni's Manifesto Messaging
The President's campaign messaging further strengthened his appeal. Museveni consistently emphasised his seven building blocks manifesto, highlighting priorities such as socioeconomic transformation, fighting household poverty through the four-acre model, strengthening patriotism, and expanding markets for Ugandan products through regional integration.
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Supporters argue that the clarity and repetition of these themes helped rejuvenate his candidacy in Busoga, a region where economic livelihoods remain a central electoral concern.
Despite the presidential victory, the NRM's performance at parliamentary level was less overwhelming. The party secured 28 Members of Parliament in Busoga, maintaining the largest share, but the opposition made notable gains.
The National Unity Platform won eight seats, while Forum for Democratic Change's Wanzala Kirya captured Butembe County, bringing the opposition tally to nine seats. An additional five seats were won by independent candidates.
This represents a significant shift from the previous elections, when the opposition managed to secure only one parliamentary seat in the sub-region, won by Jinja City Woman MP Manjeri Kyebakuttika.
As Busoga's political landscape continues to evolve, analysts say the results underline the effectiveness of policy-driven campaigning and targeted mobilisation, even in regions previously viewed as opposition strongholds.
