Nairobi — Kenya's economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand, rising digital inclusion, and diversified trade relations, according to the latest Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) Economic Outlook 2026.

The report also attributes the positive outlook to easing inflationary pressures, driven by a weaker US dollar and lower energy prices, which could create room for the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates.

"The economic outlook for Kenya in 2026 is broadly constructive as the country continues to demonstrate impressive adaptability in a rapidly shifting global environment," said Khatija Haque, Chief Economist for Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) at MEI.

"Strengthening trade ties with emerging markets is expected to support economic momentum."

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Mastercard said Kenya's expanding digital economy and innovation among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will further underpin growth.

"Kenya's ability to adapt to shifting global conditions, while growing new export pathways and scaling digital adoption, demonstrates the strength of its economy," said Shehryar Ali, Senior Vice President and Country Manager for East Africa and Indian Ocean Islands at Mastercard.

"As SME innovation continues to thrive, Kenya is well-positioned to seize the opportunities of a rapidly transforming world."

The MEI outlook aligns with earlier projections by the World Bank, which forecast Kenya's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4.9 percent in 2026, up from 4.7 percent in 2024.

The World Bank's Kenya Economic Update also linked the improved outlook to stable inflation, projected to hover around 5 percent this year.

However, the report cautioned that risks remain from global trade tensions and commodity price volatility, while high public debt levels could limit fiscal space in some economies.