Amid the optimism about South Africa's prospects in 2026, economic growth is crucial to our longer-term future. If the economy expands, the coalition and the Constitution are strengthened. If the economy fails to grow now, we risk losing our last real chance to defeat the rising tide of anti-constitutionalist and radical forces.

While multiple lenses exist to interpret South Africa's current political climate, the most significant structural divide is whether a party is in the national coalition or outside it.

Obviously, there are big differences between the parties that are members of the coalition, but broadly speaking, they support the Constitution, the rule of law and democracy.

Even though some, like the Patriotic Alliance or Al Jama-ah, are populist, and others, like the Pan Africanist Congress, want to change important parts of the Constitution, in essence, these are parties that support the current system, while most of the parties outside the coalition want radical change.

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The prime examples are the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, which doesn't believe there should be a Constitution, while the EFF wants radical changes that would fundamentally change SA's political system.

There are exceptions, like ActionSA, which is outside the coalition and broadly supportive of the Constitution.

Prosperity is the glue

Perhaps the most important factor determining whether parties remain in the coalition or leave it is economic growth. Prosperity is the glue that holds coalitions together. If the economy thrives, ideological differences and personality clashes fade into the background, as no party wants to be blamed for...