Uganda: When Politics Pauses for the Law - Kivumbi's Arrest Rewrites Opposition Lines

2 February 2026

The arrest of Muwanga Kivumbi, a senior figure in the National Unity Platform (NUP), has triggered an unexpected political realignment within Uganda's opposition -- one unfolding not on campaign platforms or party headquarters, but in the courtroom.

Kivumbi's detention comes at a time when his standing within NUP appeared firmly consolidated. Shortly before his arrest, he had been appointed by NUP president Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu to replace Mathias Mpuga Nsamba as Buganda Region Deputy President.

In accepting the role, Kivumbi pledged unwavering loyalty to the party leadership and its political direction, cementing his position within NUP's inner circle.

That positioning also placed him at a clear political distance from several opposition figures with whom NUP had clashed in recent years.

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Under Kivumbi's tenure and influence, NUP openly criticised Asman Basalirwa over what it described as ideological inconsistency, despite his earlier association with the People Power movement.

In Busiro East, the party backed Emmanuel Magala, endorsed by musician and political activist Mathias Walukaga, against veteran legislator Medard Lubega Sseggona.

In the tightly contested Kampala Lord Mayor race, NUP supported Ronald Balimwezo over incumbent Erias Lukwago.

Taken together, these political choices reinforced the perception of widening fractures between NUP's leadership and figures such as Mathias Mpuga, Basalirwa, Sseggona and Lukwago.

Mpuga's subsequent formation of the Democratic Front (DF) further entrenched the sense of political separation.

Kivumbi's arrest, however, has produced a striking twist.

In an unexpected convergence, Mpuga, Basalirwa, Sseggona and Lukwago -- each a lawyer and seasoned political actor -- are now among those expected to play a role in Kivumbi's legal defence.

Once regarded as political rivals or outsiders to his camp, they have stepped forward at a moment when legal rights and personal liberty have taken precedence over party alignments.

The development has drawn wide public attention, exposing the fluid and pragmatic nature of opposition politics in Uganda.

It has also highlighted the complex intersection between political rivalry and professional ethics, particularly within the legal fraternity, where shared principles can override partisan disagreement.

Political analysts note that moments of heightened state pressure and legal confrontation often reorder political relationships.

When constitutional rights, due process and legal precedent are perceived to be under threat, political competition frequently gives way to broader concerns about justice and democratic space.

Civil society voices have echoed this view, describing the unfolding legal alliance as a reminder that political conflict need not erase solidarity, especially when fundamental freedoms are at stake.

For them, the courtroom has become a rare arena where opposition actors, divided by ideology and strategy, can find common ground.

With court proceedings imminent and public interest high, Kivumbi's case offers a revealing snapshot of how Uganda's opposition responds under pressure.

It humanises a political landscape often defined by sharp rhetoric and electoral rivalry, illustrating how alliances can shift when the stakes move from political advantage to the defence of rights.

Whether this moment of unity will outlast the legal battle remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Kivumbi's arrest has redrawn political lines in unexpected ways -- demonstrating that when politics pauses, the law can become the meeting point, and when freedom is on trial, ideology often takes a back seat to principle.

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