Uganda's prolonged political stasis under President Yoweri Museveni is steadily eroding prospects for a peaceful transition, weakening state institutions, and deepening social and economic distress, former Leader of the Opposition Prof. Ogenga Latigo warns, arguing that history shows such paths rarely end well.
President Museveni's decades-long grip on power continues to shape Uganda's political landscape, leaving opposition voices constrained, domestic institutions tightly controlled, and many citizens living under fear, even as the country grapples with worsening governance challenges, inequality, youth unemployment, and an increasingly uncertain political future.
Political analysts caution that Museveni's rule mirrors historical patterns seen in long-serving strongman regimes, where the dismantling of independent institutions and suppression of dialogue leaves nations vulnerable to instability. In Uganda's case, they say, growing poverty, political polarization, and the absence of credible succession planning are steadily narrowing the space for a peaceful transition.
Former Leader of the Opposition Prof. Ogenga Latigo says Uganda's political crisis goes far beyond election outcomes or opposition performance. Speaking to the Nile Post, Prof. Latigo warned that misleading statistics, shrinking democratic space, and regime-controlled institutions are steadily eroding the country's chances of an orderly and peaceful transfer of power.
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Except;
Following UNEB's release of PLE results on Friday, there have been renewed calls to scrap the grading and aggregate system, citing its role in fueling exam malpractice. What is your view?
People talk about PLE as if it exists in isolation. That is the wrong approach. Before abolishing anything, we must first ask: what is the root cause of the problem? Let those advocating abolition tell us that. The root cause is governance failure. Exams are leaked because people are bribed, or because they fear punishment for doing the right thing. When corruption defines the system, abolishing PLE will not solve anything.
Even A-level exams or university degrees become meaningless if the foundation is rotten. You cannot build a house on a weak foundation and expect it to stand.
So, do we still need PLE at all?
What we need is good education. The focus should not be on PLE alone. When we were growing up, there were no nursery schools, yet by Primary Seven pupils could read and write properly. Today, in many public schools, especially in rural areas, children complete Primary Seven without being able to read, write, or think independently. That is the real crisis.
If a child cannot read or write, how do you expect them to pass exams? The fact that our education system now produces people who cannot think independently is far more serious than whether PLE exists or not. What we need is a complete overhaul of the education system, and indeed of the country. That is urgent.
When you compare the 2021 general elections and the recently concluded elections, the opposition appears to have performed poorly. This is the first time in Uganda's history that President Museveni has been declared winner with about 71 percent of the vote. What, in your view, went wrong?
In my view, nothing fundamentally went wrong. The problem is that people forget that statistics can be used to mislead. When you talk about 70 or 71 percent, you must also talk about how many voters actually voted. That is the reality of Uganda. How many registered voters turned up? How many voted for the President?
What happened during the last campaign is no different from what we have seen in previous elections. Elections in Uganda are never free. And because they are not free, and because the regime must win, all means are used. Intimidation, coercion, manipulation, militarization--these are part of every election cycle. So when people act surprised, I wonder what exactly they were expecting.
So, does that mean there is no hope? Many Ugandans seem to be losing hope that there can be change if things remain as they are.
No. In life, change is constant. The only thing you cannot change is change itself. Change will happen. However, for those of us who want a peaceful transition--a transition that also creates posterity for President Museveni and gives the country an opportunity to stand up and move forward together--you can clearly see that this possibility is diminishing.
I do not operate on hope. I operate on analysis. I analyze trends and possibilities. As far back as 2014, I wrote an article titled Political Succession: Why Can't We Learn? In that article, I argued that leaders who rule like dictators, as President Museveni is ruling Uganda, always end violently.
Why? Because they destroy the systems that can sustain a country after them. They destroy avenues for dialogue. Eventually, politics becomes "us versus them": those who have guns and those who do not, those who have tear gas and those who do not. And I always say this: the day the key to the tear gas store is locked, those who have been firing tear gas will be defeated by those who no longer fear it.
That is why I repeatedly warn the President. Yes, you may be a strongman today, but this path has always ended badly. It ended badly for Mobutu. It ended badly for Bokassa. It ended badly for many dictatorial and strong-arm leaders across the world.
In December 2014, when I wrote that article, Blaise Compaoré was overthrown in Burkina Faso. These things are not coincidences. They are historical patterns. We must stop living in delusion. We are all human beings. No one has divine power. When you do wrong, you eventually pay the price.
Look at Gaddafi. Look at Saddam Hussein, pulled from a foxhole, pleading before he was killed. That is how these things end.
Don't you think President Museveni understands these regional and African political realities? Why does he seem afraid to prepare a successor or hand over power peacefully?
Part of the challenge does not come from President Museveni alone. Much of it comes from regime beneficiaries--people who believe that once Museveni goes, they will all be in trouble. So Museveni must stay by any means necessary.
Some of the shootings and tear-gassing you see are not personally ordered by him, but by those who want him to remain in power. However, he must understand that all these actions form part of his legacy. That is what history will remember him for as President of Uganda. Leadership is not just about what you do personally; it is also about what you allow to be done in your name.
Look at how power is structured. The President is the President. Mama Janet is a senior minister. His son commands the army. His brother, Salim Saleh, is extremely powerful. Sons-in-law and daughters-in-law occupy influential positions.
No country can be successfully run that way. What you may see is temporary success for a family and its cronies, but as I have always said, it will end in tears.
What should be done to restore stability and order in the country, especially when domestic institutions seem unable to check the excesses of power?
Domestic institutions are under his control. Parliament is under his control through the Speaker, so do not expect anything from there. The army is under his control through his son. Have you ever heard the Minister of Defence speak independently? No. That is the sad reality.
What worries me most is that many senior Ugandans--people whose voices once carried weight--have gone silent.
Why do you think they are silent?
Fear. Repression. Fear of losing the life they are living. Even religious institutions have largely withdrawn. Have you noticed that religious leaders rarely come out strongly to condemn injustice?
Many of them were influenced a long time ago. Each time a bishop is consecrated and given a car, that bishop feels obligated to thank and defend the giver. When wrongdoing happens, the easiest defense is to turn away and pretend nothing has happened.
We now live in a country of pretense. We talk about economic growth and GDP figures while poverty deepens. Hatred is growing. Sectarianism is strong. Those who speak out--people like Bobi Wine--are labeled dissidents or criminals instead of being listened to.
Does Uganda need foreign intervention?
No. What Uganda needs is a strong and consistent internal voice speaking to the President and saying, "Mr. President, wake up. Stop this." Even if you believe you are great, your greatness will disappear the moment you are gone.
What Uganda needs now is open dialogue and reconciliation so that we can move forward. Look at the country. Roads are full of potholes. Young people are unemployed. Every morning you drive through smoke. This is happening everywhere.
Young girls are giving birth. Children below five years are everywhere. Nobody is talking about their future. Nobody is planning for them. Where are we going to end up?
Museveni previously performed poorly in Northern Uganda, but this time he seems to have gained massive support there. What has changed?
In the book A Man for All Seasons, Sir Thomas More says you can buy a man by imposing enough suffering so that escape becomes attractive. The regime has imposed rural poverty. So when the President talks about programs like the Parish Development Model, people get excited because they see it as an escape.
If you are given a free T-shirt to replace the torn one you have, you will take it. If they distribute 10,000 shillings, people accept it. But if the President were truly successful, why distribute money? Why print T-shirts? Why don't citizens print T-shirts for him themselves?
Does this frustrate you personally?
I am a scientist. When results appear wrong, you do not get frustrated; you sit down and re-examine your work. I will never stop speaking out. I speak because I mean well for this country. I mean well for President Museveni. I mean well for everyone.
Where do you see the future of the opposition given the current political situation?
I will not shy away from the responsibility of speaking out because I mean well for this country. Nobody is "the opposition." Bobi Wine is a member of a political party. He is the leader of NUP, not "the opposition."
This NRM government deliberately labels everyone else as opposition so that they can be treated as enemies. When we continue with this narrative of opposition versus government, we turn politics into two hostile camps instead of offering Ugandans choices. Politics should be about alternatives, not enemies.
But Professor, Bobi Wine is on the run, and many vocal politicians, especially in Buganda and the central region, were defeated in the recent elections. Doesn't this signal the weakening of dissent?
That depends on the direction you are looking from. What you describe as the fate of the opposition is actually the reality of how President Museveni is ruling this country. The reality is what happens to those who are not part of the system.
Whether they call themselves opposition or not is irrelevant. What matters is how power is exercised against anyone who does not belong. In the Christian Bible, Jesus says, "Whatever you do to the least of my brothers, you do unto me." The God who is watching is watching what is being done to the least of His people in Uganda. In the end, wrongdoers always pay a heavy price.
What do you think will be the turning point for Uganda, given where we are now?
You cannot project it. All you can do is reflect on what has happened elsewhere and know that something will eventually happen. It could even include the demise of the President. Leaders are human. Mortality is real. That is why you cannot predict anything with certainty.
Look at Venezuela. Look at unexpected political collapses elsewhere. Things happen. Even powerful nations make mistakes. No country is immune.
The opposition has on several occasions called on Ugandans to take to the streets, but large-scale protests have not happened. Are Ugandans unwilling to act?
I do not know when opposition leaders officially called on Ugandans to go to the streets. What I remember is that during Bobi Wine's campaigns, people went to the streets spontaneously. They were not mobilized.
This is a heavily militarized state. What journalists feel, what ordinary Ugandans feel--even those perceived to support the regime--is fear. But fear only suppresses action temporarily. Pressure builds silently. When it finally breaks, it breaks decisively.
Do you think those agitating for change are ready to replace President Museveni?
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That depends on how political parties articulate their policies. When we contested as FDC for the first time, we focused not just on a manifesto but on a party platform. That platform was One Uganda, One Country, One People.
That idea had deep meaning. Once people see themselves as Ugandans first, you take a huge step toward resolving the country's core problems. We experienced this in the 1960s. Schools brought together students from all regions. In one school, you would find all tribes of Uganda.
You went to institutions like Toro St. Peter's, Namilyango, Kisubi, Buddo--schools that brought Ugandans together. That was the Uganda spirit that some now demonize. But when you think about it today, you realize what we have lost.
When you compare today's Uganda with past regimes, including Obote's era, do you feel things were better then?
No. This is not about glorifying past regimes. It is about recognizing how badly we have sunk. When I went to Senior One in 1968, my father paid school fees only once. After that, education was free. Students travelled freely during holidays. We received allowances. We were given free uniforms.
President Museveni recently said again that Uganda has no opposition. What do you think he means?
Perhaps he understands opposition the way the NRM once understood it--people who pick up arms against a violent regime. But Uganda thrives on peace, love, and unity. No matter how provoked, most Ugandans want peace.
That is why I cannot be part of a system where hatred is used as a political tool. Uganda deserves better than politics of exclusion and demonization.
Many people have accused President Museveni of grabbing state institutions. Is it also true that he finds people willing to be grabbed?
Nobody is willingly grabbed. Grabbing is a process. It starts slowly. Someone pulls the rug slightly and says, "I just want a little space." Then they pull it further. Before you realize it, you are fighting for the rug itself. That is how institutions are captured--gradually, not suddenly.
What is your view of the current Parliament and the next Parliament?
Frankly, it is an exercise in futility as long as the fundamental problem remains. The real issue is leadership at the very top. Uganda needs a new beginning--one where no one claims entitlement based on having fought a war, and where competence is the only qualification.
Despite my experience, I have never been appointed to any key government position. Yet through institutions like the Economic Policy Research Centre, I have reviewed major government programs, including PDM. Once someone is labeled "opposition," they are excluded, even if they love this country deeply. That is Uganda's crisis.
What is your message to Ugandans?
I hope the voices and issues some of us have consistently raised will be taken seriously. The President needs help to end this presidency with dignity and retire honorably. He has done his part, but everything risks being destroyed if what we are witnessing continues.
Nobody is safe. Those who think they are safe are living in illusion. Absolute power always ends in regret. My concern is Uganda.
