Ethiopia: Govt Revises GDP Growth Forecast to 10.2pct

By Ashenafi Endale

The government has revised its projections for economic growth during the 2025/26 fiscal year, with its new forecast up a full percentage point from the 9.2 percent that officials had put forward six months ago.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) announced his administration's new GDP growth forecast of 10.2 percent to members of Parliament today. He justified the adjustment by claiming the numbers are based on assessments conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and on what he claims is higher-than-expected economic performance over the first half of the fiscal year.

In its fourth review of Ethiopia's economic program last week, the IMF projected the country's GDP growth for 2025/26 at 9.3 percent.

"For the first time in history, our forecast is only one [percentage point] higher than the IMF forecast. This is a very small difference," said the PM.

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He told Parliament that unforeseen growth in the agricultural sector is the primary driver behind the updated forecast. Farmers around the country registered a total output of nearly one billion quintals of agricultural products over the last six months, outpacing expectations by more than 50 percent, according to the Prime Minister.

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