Nairobi — Kenya is set to experience near-average to above-average rainfall in several key regions during the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 "Long Rains" season, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast.
In a technical statement issued after the Twelfth National Climate Outlook Forum, the State Department of Environment and Climate Change said the outlook points to favorable rainfall across the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands west and east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, as well as parts of north-western Kenya.
The March-May period is the country's main rainfall season, typically accounting for the bulk of annual precipitation in most parts of the country.
Areas that normally receive the highest seasonal totals--often exceeding 300 millimetres--include the Lake Victoria Basin, the central and southern Rift Valley, the highlands on both sides of the Rift Valley, and the Coastal Strip.
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According to KMD, the MAM 2026 forecast shows near-average rainfall with a tendency toward above-average amounts over western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and the central highlands.
These regions are also likely to experience occasional heavy rainfall events during the season.
North-western counties, including Turkana and Samburu, are similarly expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
In contrast, parts of north-eastern Kenya--Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo--are forecast to record near-average to below-average rainfall.
The south-eastern lowlands, covering Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, and inland areas of Tana River County, are also expected to see near-average to below-average rainfall.
Meanwhile, the Coast is projected to receive below-average rainfall overall, although isolated heavy showers may occur in some areas.
KMD noted that the season is likely to have a normal to late onset across most regions, punctuated by intermittent dry spells.
The peak of the rains is expected in April for much of the country, except along the Coast, where maximum rainfall is projected in May.
A detailed regional outlook indicates that counties in the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley--including Nandi, Kakamega, Kisumu, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, and Narok--are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, with some areas experiencing heavy downpours at times.
Similar conditions are expected in the Highlands east of the Rift Valley, covering Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, and Nairobi counties.
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