Last week's visit to Nairobi by the United States Deputy Secretary of State, Christopher Landau, was presented as a reaffirmation of the Kenya-US strategic partnership. There were warm diplomatic words, photo-ops at State House, and familiar talking points about trade, security cooperation and shared interests.
Yet beyond the optics, it is difficult to point to any concrete economic gains for Kenya from the visit.
This is not to dismiss the long-standing relationship between Nairobi and Washington. The United States remains an important security partner and a significant destination for Kenyan exports. But in an era defined by hard economic choices, rising debt pressure and an urgent need to expand exports, symbolism is no longer enough. Kenya's diplomacy must be judged by outcomes, not appearances.
Contrast this with Kenya's rapidly deepening engagement with China.
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Just days ago, Nairobi announced a preliminary trade deal with Beijing that would grant 98 per cent of Kenyan exports duty-free access to the vast Chinese market. For an export-constrained economy grappling with a persistent trade deficit, this is not a minor development. It is potentially transformative.
The deal builds on China's broader move to eliminate tariffs on goods from African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations. While the policy shift was announced last year, its implications for Kenya are now becoming clear. Access to a market of more than 1.4 billion consumers without prohibitive tariff barriers offers Kenyan producers immense opportunities.
President William Ruto has defended Kenya's closer engagement with Beijing against criticism from some US officials, arguing that Kenya must export more to close its trade gap. On this point, the numbers speak for themselves. Unlike many Western trade frameworks that remain heavy on promises and light on delivery, China's approach has translated into measurable market access.
China's economic ties with Kenya extend beyond trade. More quietly but just as significantly, both governments have agreed to convert the base currency of some loans from US dollars to Chinese yuan in order to lower interest costs and reduce exposure to currency volatility. For a country managing debt and a volatile global financial environment, such terms matter.
Against this backdrop, the substance of the Landau visit appears thin.
According to official readouts, discussions focused on progress toward a comprehensive Kenya-US trade agreement that could reshape tariffs, digital commerce and investment flows. These are important conversations, but they remain conversations. No new market-opening measures, tariff concessions or financing commitments were announced. If Washington wants to be taken seriously as an economic partner, it has to move beyond broad commitments and put clear offers on the table, including timelines, priority sectors and enforceable market access.
Even the trade figures cited during the meeting, showing a relatively even exchange between the two countries, underscore the limitation. Balance is not the same as growth. For Kenya, the challenge is not maintaining equilibrium with a mature economy, but dramatically expanding exports, value addition and industrial capacity. A meaningful trade partnership should answer practical questions. Which Kenyan goods will gain improved entry into the US market. What barriers will be removed. What investment incentives will be offered. Which value chains will be supported so that Kenya exports more than raw products.
There is also the larger context of uncertainty around trade preference regimes and how reliably they translate into long-term industrial planning. Kenya's private sector does not build factories on goodwill alone. It plans around predictable access, stable rules, and competitive financing. That is why announcements that simply restate commitment, without the detail that makes commitment investable, leave many Kenyans unconvinced.
Security cooperation, particularly on counterterrorism efforts in Somalia, also featured prominently in the talks. While regional stability matters, this is hardly new terrain. After more than two decades of conflict, even US officials now concede that long-standing strategies require reassessment. Security partnerships, however necessary, do not substitute for economic opportunity, especially for a young population that judges foreign policy by jobs created at home.
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But the broader issue remains. Africa is no longer a stage for diplomatic theatre alone. Countries like Kenya are making interest-based calculations about where growth, financing and market access will come from. In that calculus, China currently offers more than rhetoric. It offers access, capital and negotiated flexibility.
This does not mean Kenya must choose between Washington and Beijing. Strategic autonomy requires engagement with both. But it does require honesty. If US engagement with Africa remains dominated by symbolism, security talk and future-tense trade promises, it will continue to lose ground to partners willing to place concrete economic value on the table.
Diplomacy is not judged by the quality of handshakes at State House. It is judged by whether factories open, exports grow and livelihoods improve. On that score, Kenya's tilt eastward is less about politics and more about pragmatism.
The author is a scholar based in Nairobi.
