Nairobi — Several parts of the country are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall during the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 long-rains season, even as other regions face reduced rainfall and uneven distribution, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has said.
In its outlook released after the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF12), KMD said favourable rainfall is likely over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, the Rift Valley, and sections of north-western Kenya.
The department, however, cautioned that rainfall performance will vary across the country, with some regions expected to record below-average totals.
According to the forecast, the Southeastern Lowlands, Northeastern Kenya, and parts of north-western Kenya are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall, while the Coast is expected to be the driest region during the season.
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KMD warned that even in areas projected to receive adequate rainfall, the season could be disrupted by poor temporal and spatial distribution.
"Several areas are likely to experience a poor to fair distribution of rainfall, with a normal to late onset and intermittent dry spells," the department said.
Despite the projected dry spells, the weatherman noted that the season will not be entirely dry, with occasional heavy rainfall events expected in some locations.
The peak of the long rains is forecast for April across most parts of the country, although coastal counties are expected to experience their peak later, in May.
Counties in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Rift Valley including Kakamega, Kisumu, Bungoma, Nakuru, Kericho and Narok are expected to record near-average to above-average rainfall, with sporadic heavy downpours possible.
Similar conditions are expected in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, covering Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Nairobi.
In contrast, Northeastern counties such as Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, alongside the Southeastern Lowlands of Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta, are forecast to receive less rainfall, with generally poor distribution during the season.
The Coast is expected to receive below-average rainfall overall, although KMD said isolated heavy rainfall events may still occur in a few areas.
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KMD also warned of widespread heat during the season, with warmer-than-average temperatures forecast across the country. Higher temperatures are expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, the Southeastern Lowlands and parts of Northeastern Kenya.
