Dar es Salaam — SEVERAL regions in the country are expected to experience the long rains (Masika) from late this month, with the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) recommending measures to mitigate economic and social impacts.
While excessive moisture and flooding would feature in areas that receive Normal to Above Normal rains, decrease in water levels of reservoirs and river flow is likely to occur over the areas where Normal to Below Normal rains are expected.
Issuing the forecast yesterday in Dar es Salaam, TMA's Director General Ladislaus Chang'a noted that the Masika rains occur between March and May over the bimodal areas (Lake Victoria Basin, Northeastern Highlands, Northern Coast and northern part of Kigoma region).
Dr Chang'a stated that Normal to Above Normal rains are expected over most areas of the Northern Coast, western side of the Lake Victoria Basin (Kagera and Geita regions) together with northern Kigoma.
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"Farmers are advised to prepare their fields timely, plant, weed, and use appropriate inputs while considering soil moisture conditions," he said.
"They should also apply best practices and technologies to prevent waterlogging in fields, soil erosion and leaching caused by prolonged water stagnation or flooding and conserve water on farms for the areas expected to receive Normal to Below Normal rainfall."
Meanwhile, Normal to Below Normal rains are expected over the North-eastern Highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions) and some parts of the Lake Victoria Basin (Mwanza, Shinyanga, Mara and Simiyu regions).
The rains are expected to start during the fourth week of February and first week of March, 2026 over most areas of the Lake Victoria Basin; and during the first and second weeks of March over the Northern Coast; and during the second and third weeks of March, 2026 over the Northeastern highlands.
The rains are expected to cease during the fourth week of May and first week of June 2026 over most bimodal areas.
"Periods of excessive soil moisture and flooding are likely to occur in areas forecasted to receive Normal to Above Normal rainfall. This condition may adversely affect crop development due to waterlogging and the leaching of essential soil nutrients," Dr Chang'a cautioned.
Additionally, the risk of pest such as rodents and termites, and disease outbreaks particularly fungal infections is expected to rise, posing a threat to key crops such as bananas, maize, beans, cassava and paddy.
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In contrast, areas anticipated to receive Normal to Below Normal rainfall may experience moisture stress, which could affect crop growth and development and reduce yields for rain-fed crops.
In areas expected to receive Normal to Below Normal rains suppression of rainfall may occur and affect availability of water and pasture for livestock leading to potential conflicts between pastoralists and other land users.
However, in areas expected to receive Normal to Above Normal rains, livestock keepers and fishers are likely to benefit from availability of pasture, water and food for fish. In addition, seaweed farming may be affected due to a reduction in seawater salinity.
However, outbreaks of livestock diseases such as Rift Valley fever, an increase in tick-borne diseases, challenges related to rising worm infestations, and breeding of vector- borne insects may occur.
On the other hand, in areas anticipated to feature Normal to Above Normal rains, road and railways infrastructure may be affected.
These may cause increased number of accidents for land transport, delay and cancelation of flights, marine vessels leading to the increase of operational costs for aviation and maritime services.
