Kenya: Fitch Ratings Puts NCBA On Watch After Nedbank Bid

Fitch Ratings placed NCBA Group Plc and NCBA Bank Kenya Plc on Rating Watch Positive after South Africa's Nedbank Group offered to acquire a majority stake in the lender.

NCBA Group's long-term issuer default rating of B- and its national long-term rating of AA(ken) were placed on watch, alongside the same ratings for NCBA Bank. Other ratings were unchanged.

The move reflects Fitch's view that, if the deal is completed, NCBA would benefit from a high likelihood of support from Nedbank, which is rated BB- with a stable outlook. Fitch said NCBA would be strategically important to Nedbank's expansion in East Africa.

Nedbank has made a partial offer to acquire 66% of NCBA. Shareholders representing 71.2% of the issued shares have given irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer for their pro-rata entitlements. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals, including an exemption from Kenya's Capital Markets Authority.

Fitch said it expects to resolve the rating watch once the acquisition is completed. If the deal falls through, the ratings would be affirmed at current levels.

Key Takeaways

The rating action highlights how ownership changes can alter credit profiles in African banking. Fitch signaled that NCBA's ratings could rise once Nedbank becomes the controlling shareholder, reflecting expected support rather than NCBA's standalone strength. Under Fitch's framework, NCBA's government support ratings would be withdrawn and replaced with shareholder support ratings tied to Nedbank. Any upgrade would likely be limited to 1 notch on the international scale, though national ratings could rise by up to 2 notches. The deal also shows Nedbank's push beyond Southern Africa, using Kenya as a regional platform. For NCBA, the transaction could improve funding access and market confidence, even before operational benefits emerge. Investors will focus on regulatory clearance and timing. Delays beyond 6 months could extend the rating watch. A failure to complete the deal would leave NCBA's ratings unchanged and refocus attention on its standalone risk profile.

Read the original article on Daba Finance.