As drinking declines in Europe and North America, global alcohol companies are shifting their growth strategy towards emerging markets - including South Africa. Public health advocates warn that increased sales efforts could deepen alcohol-related harm just as the Treasury considers reforms aimed at reducing consumption.

When Heineken's global CEO, Dolf van den Brink, announced his resignation at the start of the year, the company described it as a routine leadership transition.

After six years at the helm, Van den Brink is stepping down amid lower sales volumes and declining revenue in major markets. The problem that Heineken and other alcohol companies are grappling with is that young people in Europe and North America are drinking less. In these regions, the sober curious movement is growing, making liquor less appealing to a new generation. This is a positive shift for public health, but for an industry dependent on sales volumes, a decline in drinking represents an existential threat - visible in the recent jobs cuts in the company.

Van den Brink's resignation may signal a deeper crisis within multinational alcohol companies. For SA, it's a warning: when big liquor companies face challenges abroad, they often turn to emerging markets to maintain profits. This is what Heineken intends doing as it pushes ahead with its EverGreen 2030 strategy that prioritises emerging markets for future growth.

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Heineken's focus on emerging markets presents Africa and parts of Asia as the next frontier for expansion....