One big order of business is capping South Africa's levels at 77.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). For the markets, any significant upward shift from that level will be a deal breaker. But economists broadly expect Godongwana to stay the course on this front.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver his Budget speech on Wednesday, 25 February 2026, with some fresh arrows in his quiver including a rare credit rating upgrade, surging gold and platinum group metals (PGM) prices and slowing inflation.

These factors and others should help steady the finance minister's aim as he strives to hit the targets needed to contain rising debt levels and meet the goal - in the jargon of economists - of "fiscal consolidation".

One big order of business is capping SA's levels at 77.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). For the markets, any significant upward shift from that level would be a deal breaker. But economists broadly expect Godongwana to stay the course on this front.

"SA's debt burden remains elevated... We anticipate that the National Treasury will confirm the debt stabilisation achieved in FY2025/26, articulate a clear path to reducing the debt ratio towards 70% in the medium term and 60% in the long term, and provide an update on the fiscal anchor policy expected to take effect from April 2027," said Lullu Krugel, Chief Economist and Sustainability Leader, PwC South Africa.

A "fiscal anchor" is a specific ceiling that a government pledges not to exceed,...