Nairobi — POLITICAL tensions and very strong words from former leaders are already rising as Kenya prepares for the 2027 elections. What seems to be a typical political discussion often appears at public gatherings, in church forums and in the media, indicating that things are tough on the ground.
What isn't covered in detail, though, is how the opinions of past leaders who held the top government positions may affect the nation's economy, directly or indirectly.
What Kenya needs to understand is that the modern economy is fuelled by confidence, expectations and policy predictability in addition to production numbers and tax receipts.
As a beneficiary of the Kenyan education system, I find that statements by powerful political figures, such as Dr Fred Matiangi, clearly suggest that Kenya is heading in the wrong direction, in my view, sparking division among Kenyan politicians and leading to either economic instability or stability.
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Kenyans must recognise that politics and economics are closely intertwined. In the past, political unrest in Kenya has had a direct impact on the country's economy.
Economic growth slowed during the 2007- 2008 post-election period, the tourism industry contracted and business infrastructure in some areas deteriorated.
The incident made it abundantly evident that opinions about political stability have a significant impact on the economy.
Former presidents' remarks are currently being closely watched by the public and domestic and international investors as the country prepares for the political landscape in 2027.
Listening to highly respected Kenyans such as Dr Fred Matiang'i, last Sunday at the church time, who clearly state that, as a citizen with adequate experience who previously served as cabinet minister for the interior and for the coordination of the national government for five years, he understands the security sector in Kenya well.
As an economics analyst, this is a bold statement to openly say the country's mood has been tampered with. The argument Dr Matiangi is making is very clear: either Kenyans don't know, or they don't care.
When you hear such respected leaders clearly state what is left of this Kenya, you start wondering: with the resources Kenya has and the capacity built under the previous government, what exactly is going on?
Citing incidents in 2024, when Kenya was experiencing demonstrations and the government misled the country, we woke up one morning to find a peaceful country with citizens armed with nothing, overrunning parliament.
These citizens have raised specific issues since then. Since then, nobody, not even this government, has been coherent enough to say this is what Gen Z wanted. Investor confidence is being undermined by controversy and the fallout from public dressingdown by previous leaders, which should have remained internal.
In the investment world, when competing to attract investors, they thoroughly examine political trends before making a financial commitment. Statements that cast doubt on the stability of economic policies, the legitimacy of institutions, or the political process can be taken as warning signs. Kenyans, you are shooting yourselves in the foot.
Investors may cancel projects or delay investment decisions if former leaders make remarks suggesting widespread demonstrations or disagreement with the outcome of the early election. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and even domestic investment decline as a result.
This can significantly affect GDP growth in an economy that relies heavily on foreign funding for industrial and infrastructure projects, an economy currently struggling to make its debt payments. Before making a financial commitment, investors thoroughly examine political trends.
It is possible to take statements that cast doubt on the stability of economic policies, the legitimacy of institutions, or the political process as warning signs.
Investors may halt projects or delay investment choices if former leaders make remarks that raise the prospect of widespread protests or express disapproval of the outcome of the early election. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investment decline as a result.
This can significantly affect GDP growth in an economy that largely depends on foreign financing for industrial and infrastructure projects.
Kenya must recognise that political expectations affect the financial market. In response to statements that sow doubt, foreign investors may sell their investments out of fear of political risk.
As a result, the Kenyan shilling is under pressure. The average Kenyan citizen bears the brunt of rising import costs, oil prices and inflation when the shilling depreciates.
Currency fluctuations are a serious setback to a nation's economic health, particularly in relation to budget deficits and public debt. Political risk indicators are used by international markets to assess a nation's capacity to service its loans.
When statements hint at the potential for significant policy changes without a clear plan, the so-called "sovereign risk premium" rises.
This implies that as the budget is allocated more to debt servicing, the government is compelled to borrow at higher interest rates, interest payments rise and development funds fall.
Increased political risk may affect lending terms and development partners' trust in Kenya, which has already been collaborating with organisations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to stabilise the economy.
Kenya's tourism sector is highly dependent on the country's reputation for stability and security. Travellers delay their trips when major protests or political instability are reported internationally.
Travel agencies, hotels and wildlife parks are directly affected. Both foreign exchange earnings and employment in the service sector are declining. As a result, the private sector bases hiring and business expansion decisions on policy stability.
Employers become more cautious when statements suggest that international accords could be abandoned or that tax laws could be altered without a plan.
Additionally, this condition poses a significant socioeconomic dilemma for Kenya, a country where a large number of young people enter the workforce each year. Democracy enables political rivalry and heated debate.
However, Kenya's former presidents should recognise that their statements have a significant economic impact in the run-up to the 2027 elections. A country's economy relies on stability, policy predictability and trust.
Fearful or uncertain speeches can devalue the currency, discourage investment, raise borrowing costs, reduce employment and lower government revenue, making it harder for the government to carry out its duties to Kenyans.
However, speeches that promote solidarity, institutional stability and rational policy discussions can boost market confidence and guide the country through political change without triggering economic instability.
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The challenge facing Kenya as it approaches 2027 is not only who will win the election but also whether the political climate will continue to safeguard the country's economic prosperity.
Because speech can increase or decrease the value of economics and politics, which are two sides of the same coin in today's society.
Statements by past top leaders have a significant economic impact as Kenya approaches the next elections in 2027, because markets view them as indicators of potential political stability or turmoil.
Investor confidence may decline if these leaders cast doubt on the legitimacy of institutions, allude to electoral conflicts, or forecast upheaval.
This could trigger capital flight, currency instability and higher sovereign borrowing costs as lenders factor in political risk.
Elevated political discourse can also erode corporate and consumer confidence, delaying hiring, domestic spending and investment decisions.
Perceptions of instability may influence partner talks and raise the cost of accessing global financial markets in a debt-constrained environment where Kenya depends on external funding and multilateral involvement.
On the other hand, during the pre-election phase, calm and statesmanlike rhetoric that highlights peaceful competition and institutional continuity can soothe investors, stabilise expectations and promote economic resilience. Kenyans undergo transformation, particularly in the run-up to the elections.
The majority of Kenyans, whose earnings, according to the WB data, are less than 3 US dollars per day, are suffering as a result of the destruction of your economy.
