A constitutional amendment could give Zimbabwe's president at least another two years in office, continuing Africa's growing trend of lawfare.
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa is uniting his political opponents - both in and outside the ruling party - with efforts to extend his tenure in office. But whether that will strengthen their resistance remains to be seen.
The so-called ED2030 campaign (referring to Mnangagwa's first names, Emmerson Dambudzo) has been simmering within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) for years, though the president publicly repudiated it.
But on 16 February, the campaign was confirmed when justice minister Ziyambi Ziyambi gazetted Constitutional Amendment No 3, which seeks to amend Zimbabwe's 2013 constitution to strengthen the president's position.
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It proposes replacing direct presidential elections with parliamentary elections and extending the president's (and other elected officials') terms of office from five to seven years. This would effectively postpone the 2028 polls until 2030, allowing Mnangagwa to remain in office beyond the two-term limit.
That 2013 constitution, written in consultation with the then-opposition Movement for Democratic Change and others, was carefully crafted to avoid third-termism, which is rife across Africa. It contains several measures to enforce a two-term limit. ZANU-PF is trying to circumvent these measures with what amounts to a semantic sleight of hand.
As ZANU-PF Treasurer General Patrick Chinamasa argued on X this week: 'The Bill elongates the electoral cycle from five to seven years for everyone, from councillors to the President ... In essence we elected to uphold the Presidential term limit in its entirety ... This principled stance underscores our dedication to enduring democratic norms.'
So according to Chinamasa, the amendment is not 'extending' the term limit, but merely 'elongating' the electoral cycle. This trick is not fooling anyone, least of all David Coltart, Bulawayo's mayor and a leader of Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) - the main opposition.
Coltart, who helped write the 2013 constitution, pointed out to Chinamasa in a riposte on X that the constitution limits 'THE LENGTH OF TIME that a person may hold or occupy a public office. So it doesn't matter how one couches what this amendment is described as, whether it is a cycle or term - the simple enquiry is whether the provision one seeks to change involves the length of time a person holds public office.'
He says section 328(7) of the constitution says any amendment to 'a term limit provision THE EFFECT OF WHICH IS TO EXTEND THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT A PERSON MAY HOLD OR OCCUPY ANY PUBLIC OFFICE' cannot apply to an incumbent.
The constitution also says any change to this section 'must be submitted to a referendum.' But as Chinamasa declared on X: 'There will be no referendum. Full stop.'
Coltart adds that if the electoral 'cycle' can be extended by two years, 'what logical basis would prevent it from being extended by 20 years, or 50 years even? It is clearly nonsensical.'
ZANU-PF's manoeuvre reflects a wider tendency by African incumbents to use 'lawfare' to cling to power, Institute for Security Studies Researcher Zenge Simakoloyi has noted. The tactic - which includes controlling the judiciary and using legal procedures to suppress the opposition - has been used in Zambia, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Togo, among others.
This week Harare's Herald - a ZANU-PF mouthpiece - reported that the new European Union (EU) ambassador to Zimbabwe Katrin Hagemann said the amendment was valid as nations must reflect on their governance practices to ensure they align with citizens' best interests.
After an outcry from the opposition, the EU embassy clarified that Hagemann said constitutional amendments were a 'sovereign prerogative and raise no concerns when undertaken in full accordance with both the letter and the spirit of the Constitution reflecting the will of the people.' But that cannot be tested since the government shows no signs of holding a referendum, Coltart says.
The CCC, along with churches, unions and other civil society members, is uniting with ZANU-PF dissidents and war veterans - historically die-hard ruling party loyalists - to oppose the constitutional change. On the day the amendment was gazetted, six war veterans applied to the Constitutional Court to block it.
ZANU-PF opponents by most accounts include First Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga who, as army chief, helped Mnangagwa topple Robert Mugabe in a 2017 coup. It is widely believed that his reward would be to succeed Mnangagwa after one term. That promise was broken.
A united opposition is in principle a good thing. But Coltart believes Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF will ride roughshod over them, resorting to brute force if necessary. The administration is already cracking down on opponents to the constitutional change. Last year, unidentified arsonists razed a hall just before a meeting planned to strategise against the amendment.
ISS Today asked Ibbo Mandaza, Southern African Political Economy Series (SAPES) Trust Director, if the presence of war veterans and ZANU-PF dissidents in the opposition to this measure might prevent the ruling party from passing it, or even provoke another coup.
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'It's too early to say, but clearly the regime has inadvertently brought more negative attention to itself through this attempt at a constitutional coup. They are already in disarray.'
Mnangagwa has taken steps, however, to remove Chiwenga loyalists from the military leadership. Constitutional lawyer Justice Mavedzenge warned Mnangagwa in a SAPES Trust seminar this week that he could suffer the same fate as Mugabe if he lost legitimacy by forcing through the amendment and became beholden to an elite that could abandon him.
Mavedzenge also urged the region to intercede in this crisis because 'constitutional coups' could become contagious. Although Mnangagwa is 83, he's grown very rich in office and might draw inspiration from other African rulers like 93-year-old Cameroonian President Paul Biya, who was elected last October in a disputed poll for another five-year term.
This makes one wonder why we bother with term limits when, for the likes of ZANU-PF, they are merely constitutional window dressing.
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Peter Fabricius, Consultant, ISS Pretoria
