Recent reports indicate fresh troop concentrations near the Tigray region, raising serious concerns about the potential for renewed confrontation. This development should alarm both citizens and policymakers. While government-aligned voices characterize the deployment as a measure of necessary security preparedness, Ethiopia's modern political history offers a sobering warning: military force has repeatedly been employed to resolve political disputes--and each time, the outcome has been deeper fragmentation, prolonged instability, and staggering human cost.
The danger today is not merely the prospect of renewed clashes. More profoundly, there is a risk that Ethiopia may once again disregard the hard-earned lessons written in blood across its recent history. The war in Tigray (2020-2022) and the ongoing internal conflict in the Amhara and Oromia regions underscore the destructive consequences of prioritizing force over dialogue. Each cycle of militarized intervention has left communities fractured, institutions weakened, and trust between citizens and the state eroded. Security measures, if perceived as preemptive or aggressive, may inadvertently exacerbate existing tensions, fueling resentment and suspicion among local populations.
Negotiations Under Pressure: Repeating historical mistakes
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Supporters of troop deployment argue that military positioning strengthens leverage against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and deters renewed hostilities. Yet Ethiopian political history repeatedly demonstrates that negotiations conducted under coercive military pressure rarely produce durable settlements.
The final years of the Derg regime in the late 1980s offer a stark parallel. As military pressure intensified against insurgent groups across the country, including Tigrayan forces, the ruling government doubled down on military expansion instead of pursuing inclusive political reform. Despite controlling one of Africa's largest standing armies at the time, the regime collapsed in 1991 when battlefield dominance failed to translate into political legitimacy.
Similarly, the war that erupted in November 2020 between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and Tigrayan forces was initially framed by all sides as a limited military operation. It quickly escalated into one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century in Africa. Estimates from international research institutions and academics suggest that the war may have caused between 300,000 and 600,000 conflict-related deaths through violence, famine, and lack of medical access. Millions were displaced, and critical infrastructure across northern Ethiopia was devastated. The central lesson from these episodes is clear: military escalation in Ethiopia rarely remains contained.
Temptation of political reconfiguration through force
Current speculation suggests that military positioning could be aimed at restructuring political authority in Tigray. Ethiopia has attempted similar political engineering strategies before--often with destabilizing consequences.
Sustainable peace in Ethiopia has never emerged from battlefield victories alone."
During the imperial and Derg eras, centralized attempts to impose administrative authority over peripheral regions frequently produced insurgencies rather than compliance. The federal system introduced in 1995 was itself designed as a corrective measure to decades of centralized military governance that marginalized regional autonomy.
Attempts to override regional political dynamics through military force risk dismantling the very federal framework intended to preserve Ethiopia's multinational political balance. Governments perceived as externally imposed rarely gain sustainable legitimacy. Instead, they tend to entrench cycles of resistance and militarization.
Ethiopia's Multi-Front Security Pressure: Lessons from past
Ethiopia's current security landscape mirrors periods of national overextension witnessed during the late Derg years. Armed conflict and insurgency dynamics are simultaneously unfolding across multiple regions, including persistent instability in Oromia and security tensions in Afar.
Historically, Ethiopia's most destabilizing national crises have occurred when the state attempted to confront multiple armed political challenges simultaneously. By the late 1980s, military overextension contributed significantly to the Derg's collapse as economic strain, troop fatigue, and declining public support converged.
Today's economic indicators suggest that Ethiopia may be similarly vulnerable. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have repeatedly warned that conflict has slowed Ethiopia's GDP growth, strained foreign currency reserves, and increased humanitarian dependency. According to UN humanitarian estimates, more than 20 million Ethiopians currently require some form of emergency assistance, a number closely linked to conflict-driven displacement and agricultural disruption.
Renewed large-scale conflict in the north would likely compound these vulnerabilities.
Economic Cost of War: Measuring national burden
The war in Tigray, which expanded to the Afar and Amhara regions later, reportedly caused billions of dollars in infrastructure destruction. Roads, health facilities, schools, telecommunications networks, and agricultural systems suffered extensive damage. Reconstruction efforts remain incomplete, and large portions of the affected populations continue to rely on humanitarian assistance.
War diverts national resources from development toward survival. Ethiopia's defense spending increased significantly during recent conflicts, while public services and economic reform programs faced delays. Countries recovering from internal conflict typically require decades, not years, to rebuild institutional capacity and investor confidence.
Ethiopia is still in the early stages of post-war recovery. Another military confrontation risks reversing fragile progress.
Illusion of military finality
Ethiopia's political elites have repeatedly pursued military solutions under the assumption that battlefield victories can permanently settle political disputes. History suggests otherwise. Each major military campaign in modern Ethiopian history has produced temporary strategic victories followed by renewed cycles of resistance.
The imperial state confronted insurgencies that ultimately reshaped national governance. The Derg achieved temporary territorial control but lost political legitimacy. The 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement produced a pause in fighting, but political mistrust remains deeply embedded across institutions and communities.
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Military success can silence opposition temporarily. It rarely resolves underlying constitutional, territorial, and governance grievances.
Moment of national strategic choice
Ethiopia now stands at a familiar crossroads. Military deployment toward the north may be framed as preventative or defensive. But Ethiopian history demonstrates that preventative deployments often become catalysts for unintended escalation when mutual distrust dominates political relations.
The country faces a strategic choice between repeating historical cycles of militarized political settlement or investing in the far more difficult path of negotiated federal reform, constitutional clarity, and inclusive governance dialogue.
Sustainable peace in Ethiopia has never emerged from battlefield victories alone. It has only emerged when political actors recognized that national stability requires compromise, institutional legitimacy, and public trust. Ethiopia has already paid too high a price to relearn that lesson again. AS
Editor's Note: Gebremichael Negash is a refugee who was displaced from Western Tigray and is now an active member of Tsilal (ፅላል), a civil society organization dedicated to the people of Western Tigray. He can be reached at wele63776@gmail.com
