The ongoing war in the Middle East could soon be felt in the pockets of ordinary Malawians, with energy and economic experts warning that the country will not escape the shockwaves of rising oil and fertiliser prices.
The conflict has affected some of the world's key oil-producing nations in the region, creating uncertainty in global fuel supply chains. When oil-producing countries are at war, production slows, shipping routes become risky, and prices often rise sharply on the international market.
For Malawi, that is a serious concern.
Energy expert Grain Malunga says the country relies heavily on imported fuel, much of which originates from or passes through regions affected by the conflict. If supply is disrupted or prices increase globally, Malawi will inevitably pay more.
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"When oil prices go up internationally, Malawi feels it almost immediately," Malunga explained. "We are an importing nation. We do not produce our own fuel."
Higher global oil prices mean more pressure on the country's already strained foreign exchange reserves. It also means possible fuel shortages and rising pump prices -- which quickly translate into higher transport costs.
And when transport costs rise, almost everything else follows.
From maize in the market to building materials, from minibus fares to basic goods in shops -- prices tend to climb because businesses pass on the increased fuel costs to consumers.
Malunga has urged government to act quickly by exploring alternative supply routes and strengthening ties with African oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, which could provide a more stable source of fuel if Middle East supplies become unreliable.
But fuel is not the only concern.
Economist Abel Mwenibanda says Malawi's agriculture sector is also exposed. The country imports significant quantities of fertiliser, some of which comes from Middle Eastern producers. If the war disrupts manufacturing or shipping, fertiliser prices could surge -- or supplies could shrink.
That would be dangerous for a country where agriculture drives the economy and feeds millions.
"If fertiliser becomes more expensive, farmers will struggle. If farmers struggle, food production drops. And when food production drops, food prices go up," Mwenibanda warned.
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He added that the recently presented national budget may need to be revisited. According to him, government should consider setting aside additional resources to cushion the country -- possibly through bulk purchasing of fuel and fertiliser before prices escalate further.
The ripple effects could be wide.
Higher fuel prices could weaken the kwacha due to increased demand for foreign currency. Rising transport and farm input costs could push inflation up. That would further squeeze households already battling high living costs.
Meanwhile, spokesperson for the Ministry of Energy, Joana Thaundi, says government is closely monitoring the situation.
While authorities have not yet announced specific interventions, experts stress that early planning is critical. Waiting until global prices spike sharply could leave Malawi reacting instead of preparing.
For ordinary Malawians, the war may feel far away geographically. But in today's interconnected global economy, distance does not protect against economic shocks.
If oil flows slow in the Middle East, the impact can travel thousands of kilometres -- straight to Malawi's fuel pumps, farms, markets and dinner tables.
The message from experts is clear: vigilance, diversification and swift action will be key to shielding the country from the worst of the storm.
