Nairobi — The escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States has triggered global uncertainty, with Kenyan exporters now assessing the potential fallout from airspace disruptions and rising geopolitical risk.
For Kenya's horticulture sector, the Middle East is a critical transit and destination hub. Major Gulf airports serve as key cargo gateways for flowers, fruits and vegetables headed to Europe and Asia. Any closure of airspace or restrictions on flight paths could disrupt cargo schedules, reduce freight capacity and push up costs for exporters already operating on thin margins.
Speaking to Capital FM Business, Kenya Flower Council Chief Executive Officer Clement Tulezi said the sector is closely monitoring the situation, warning that any sustained disruption in the region's aviation network would directly affect cargo lift and supply chains.
Do you foresee the current conflict affecting Kenya's flower exports to Middle Eastern markets?
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Yes--there is a real risk of disruption, mainly through airspace closures and the knock-on effect on cargo lift. The Gulf is a key aviation hub for Kenya's perishables, and when airports and air corridors tighten, we see reduced available cargo space, delays, and rerouting.
For the Middle East market specifically, any sustained interruption to flights into hubs like Dubai affects timely delivery, which is critical for flowers. Our immediate focus is to protect quality through the cold chain and to work with airlines and handlers to secure alternative routings where possible.
How many shipments have been cancelled so far following the suspension of cargo flights to the Middle East?
At this moment, we cannot give a consolidated national figure that would be fair and accurate because cancellations and rollovers are happening across multiple exporters and forwarding chains and are still being reconciled.
What we can confirm is that Kenya Airways has suspended flights to Dubai and Sharjah and has confirmed cancellations that include associated freighter operations, which directly affects exporters that depend on those routings. We are compiling verified numbers from member farms and freight partners and will share an industry update as soon as the verification is complete.
Can you quantify the current revenue losses incurred by flower firms in the country?
Any figure we give must be based on verified volumes held back, downgraded, or diverted, plus the additional costs of rerouting--so we are still validating the numbers with our members and the industry.
However, the direction of impact is clear: when lift tightens, exporters face losses from missed delivery windows, quality degradation, and higher logistics costs. Globally, the scale of aviation disruption is significant, and early estimates indicate a material reduction in air cargo capacity linked to the regional airspace closures. That type of capacity shock is exactly what drives losses for perishables.
What measures are being taken to prevent further losses for flower growers?
We're responding on several fronts:
1. Engagement with airlines and freight partners to re-route cargo and secure available capacity--especially as operations remain dynamic across Gulf hubs.
2. Working with Government and aviation regulators on practical measures to increase lift and reduce friction--this includes proposals around faster approvals for additional cargo options and reviewing costs that can discourage cargo operators during peak demand.
3. Operational guidance to members: prioritising confirmed orders, strengthening cold-chain discipline, and adjusting pack plans to reduce exposure where uplift is uncertain.
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The goal is simple: protect quality, keep cargo moving, and prevent flowers from sitting in the system longer than their viable export window. Flowers are a time-sensitive export. Every hour matters. Our ask is urgent coordination to restore predictable lift and keep Kenya's horticulture supply chain reliable for buyers--despite the instability in the wider region.
Are there expectations of increased freight charges?
Yes--there is a strong likelihood of upward pressure on freight rates in the short term. When airspace closures disrupt schedules, airlines reroute, capacity tightens, and operating costs rise. On top of that, wider disruption has affected global aviation flows and can reduce effective cargo lift.
Our position is that Kenya's exporters should not be priced out of market by sudden cost spikes, so we are actively engaging carriers and authorities to stabilise lift and manage costs as much as possible.
