On March 2, 2026, the United States Treasury imposed sanctions on the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and four of its senior commanders for allegedly supporting the M23 rebellion in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
This is not routine diplomatic signalling. It is an unprecedented escalation directed at a sovereign military institution.
The sanctions follow the Washington Accords signed between Presidents Donald Trump, Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame. That agreement was intended to stabilise eastern Congo.
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Yet within days, M23 reportedly seized Uvira along the Burundi border. Washington now contends that Rwanda has violated both the spirit and obligations of the accord.
For the DRC and Burundi, this is not geopolitical theatre. It is a matter of state survival.
Rwanda Must Withdraw -- Fully and Verifiably
Section II, Paragraph 1 of the Washington framework mandates adherence to the October 31, 2024 Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for the neutralization of the FDLR and the disengagement of Rwandan forces.
That clause is not decorative language.
If peace is to retain credibility, Rwanda must completely withdraw its forces, weapons systems, and operational support structures from eastern DRC in accordance with the agreed CONOPS framework. Partial withdrawal, informal redeployment, or proxy substitution will only prolong instability.
A rules-based regional order cannot coexist with cross-border military entrenchment. Withdrawal must be verifiable, monitored, and time-bound. Anything less invites further confrontation.
But Withdrawal Alone Is Not Enough
Peace cannot be constructed on one pillar. If Rwanda is compelled to disengage militarily, the DRC must simultaneously be strengthened institutionally.
The DRC should be supported -- decisively and materially -- by regional and international blocs:
- The East African Community (EAC)
- The Southern African Development Community (SADC)
- The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
- The United Nations
- And development partners
Security vacuums invite armed entrepreneurship.
Eastern Congo's chronic instability is not solely a function of foreign interference. It is also rooted in weak state penetration, fragmented command structures, mineral opacity, and unresolved local grievances.
Strengthening internal governance means:
- Professionalising FARDC command structures
- Establishing transparent mineral traceability
- Expanding judicial reach in conflict zones
- Reforming border security management
- Creating economic alternatives for demobilised fighters
If regional blocs demand withdrawal, they must also invest in Congolese state consolidation.
Peace without governance is illusion.
The Mineral Incentive Must Be Neutralised
Let us speak plainly.
Eastern Congo's mineral wealth -- coltan, gold, tin, rare earths -- remains central to its vulnerability. Territorial control translates into economic leverage.
The sanctions explicitly reference access to mineral-rich areas in exchange for military support .
As long as armed control of territory yields financial reward, rebellion will regenerate.
Regional blocs must therefore develop a unified mineral certification and monitoring architecture. Transparency is not optional; it is a security instrument.
Justice Has Been Deferred for Too Long
The Congo crisis did not begin yesterday.
From 1994 to the present, eastern DRC has witnessed atrocities that include allegations of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. Millions have died. Entire communities have been erased. Armed actors of multiple nationalities have operated with impunity.
Accountability has been piecemeal.
The United States, having now escalated through sanctions, ought to go further: it should sponsor a United Nations Security Council Resolution establishing a Special Court for the DRC with jurisdiction covering crimes of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity from 1994 to the present.
Impunity fuels recurrence.
A credible judicial mechanism -- independent, internationally backed, and regionally supported -- would change incentives permanently.
Justice is not revenge. It is deterrence.
Burundi's Legitimate Security Interest
Burundi understands what prolonged conflict does to a nation.
Uvira's instability reverberates across Lake Tanganyika. Armed concentration near the Burundi border is not an abstract concern; it is a national security risk.
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No responsible government in Bujumbura can ignore militarisation along its frontier.
Regional peace must therefore consider Burundi not as a spectator, but as a frontline stakeholder.
The Region Faces a Test of Maturity
The Great Lakes stands at a crossroads.
One path normalises proxy warfare justified by security narratives and mineral advantage.
The other path institutionalises withdrawal, governance reform, mineral transparency, and internationalised accountability.
Sanctions have altered the strategic environment. They have raised the cost of military entrenchment.
But sanctions alone will not build peace.
Only coordinated regional responsibility -- anchored in verifiable disengagement, strengthened Congolese governance, and credible justice -- can end this era of recurring insurgency.
The Great Lakes has paid too high a price for ambiguity.
This moment demands clarity.
History will not judge who issued the strongest statement.
It will judge who ended the cycle.
