Residents have begun fleeing the regional capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region amid fears of a return to open conflict, as tensions that have been building for weeks show no sign of easing. The prospect of renewed fighting has revived memories of the devastating war that gripped the area between 2020 and 2022.
Federal and Tigrayan forces are once again massing along their shared border in northern Ethiopia, mirroring movements seen in January. The two sides signed a peace agreement in 2022 to end the civil war, but neither has properly implemented it.
Relations between the regional and federal authorities have since grown highly volatile, while Ethiopia's ties with Eritrea, which shares a border with Tigray, have deteriorated sharply.
Widening rift between Eritrea and Ethiopia sparks fear of new conflict
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Since October 2025, the Ethiopian government has denounced "a clear collusion between the Eritrean government and the TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front)."
Hundreds of people are now fleeing Tigray every day by bus and plane, as the crisis deepens in the region, which was home to around six million people before the war. Precise figures remain difficult to establish.
"Right now, the situation in Tigray is very tense, we hear a lot of things, but all we want is peace," a Tigrayan named Biruk told RFI's special correspondent sent to Makelle, the regional capital.
International divisions
The federal and Tigrayan administrations have traded blame over the rising tensions. Amanuel Assefa, second-in-command of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the region's long-dominant party, told AFP last week that federal troops were advancing from all directions.
"Tigray is being encircled by federal troops," he said. "The highly likely scenario seems that there will be a conflict."
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted he does not want war. In a speech delivered last week in Tigrinya, the language of Tigray, he said the TPLF was "not ready to make even a small compromise." The party has also been internally divided since 2023.
Kinfe Hadush, chairman of the opposition Sawet party, told RFI that Tigrayans have felt increasingly vulnerable since Abiy came to power.
"Today, not only does the TPLF no longer represent the interests of all of Tigray, but it also has no specific agenda," he said. "The TPLF just wants to mobilise the population for war. But the people are resisting; they do not want to participate in this war."
Many observers told RFI that the TPLF is facing mounting internal problems and declining popularity. TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa acknowledged the difficulties.
"I cannot say that the party has the same support as it used to," he said. "But if the TPLF were not accepted by the people, it would have been overthrown and another party would have taken power. That has not happened."
He asserted that it is the federal government that is conspiring to dismantle the party by any means necessary.
On the run
"There's nobody left here," Abel (a changed name to protect his identity) told AFP in in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, as he himself tried to join other displaced people only to find buses full.
Most nights dozens of young men with backpacks and suitcases are seen at the bus station, looking for a means to leave, and hopefully reach the federal capital, Addis Ababa.
Some 700-kilometre separate Mekelle from Addis, one of the few areas of Ethiopia still at peace.
Abel is 23, and had fought for the Tigrayan Defence Forces during the civil war of 2020-22, opposing the rebels to the federal government.
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The conflict killed at least 600,000 people.
A year after the ceasefire in Tigray, Ethiopia is little closer to peace
He worries a renewed conflict is imminent. "It's not safe here anymore," Abel said. "I saw people die. I don't want to relive that; I don't want the war to catch up with me again."
In the whole of Tigray, people are facing shortages of basic products, from petrol to food.
As Tigray clashes intensify, locals stockpile food and airline cancels flights
As federal authorities have cut subsidies to the region for months, even civil servants are no longer paid, and banks are running out of cash.
(adapted from RFI with additional reporting by AFP)
