Every year South Africa remains dependent on fossil fuels is another year in which distant conflicts, global price shocks and geopolitical instability dictate the cost of bread, transport and electricity.

As headlines track escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the instinct in South African boardrooms is to translate crisis into numbers. Brent crude pushes past $100 a barrel. The rand weakens. Risk is priced in.

But for most South Africans, this is not a story about markets. It is a story about survival.

The consequences of distant conflict are about to land in the most ordinary places: the taxi fare, the grocery bill, the paraffin stove. This week, the Central Energy Fund warned of a "perfect storm"; on 1 April a petrol price increase of more than R4.20 per litre and a staggering R7.15 per litre for diesel.

These are not marginal adjustments. They are systemic shocks that will ripple through transport costs, food prices and household budgets that are already under strain. What appears, at first glance, to be geopolitical instability is, in practice, a direct transfer of cost to South African households.

The feedback loop of volatility

South Africa's energy crisis is not only about supply constraints or ageing infrastructure. It is about exposure. The link between a global oil shock and a local electricity...