For South African investors, the impact of the Middle East conflict is not an abstract concept, but is showing up in the market through higher oil prices, inflation fears, rand weakness and a sharp reshuffling of winners and losers on the JSE. Let me be clear - this is not the time to make dramatic moves in your investment portfolio. However, you may want to understand what is being repriced, why it is happening, and where the obvious traps lie.

The first thing to note is that there is a difference between what asset managers are explicitly saying and what the market has already done. On the asset-manager side, the clearest direct call comes from M&G Investments Southern Africa, whose February 2026 market overview said that "Sasol and other energy stocks" had benefited from higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. That tells us that Sasol sits firmly in the winner camp if the oil shock persists.

Ninety One is a touch more cautious and refers to sectors rather than specific stocks. Its view is that in a Hormuz-style shock, "energy equities and energy-linked sovereigns can benefit", while a higher import bill hurts energy importers.

For a South African investor, the most obvious local translation is again Sasol first, followed by energy-linked commodity exporters such as coal companies if disruption keeps fossil-fuel prices elevated.

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That is why Exxaro and Thungela have also emerged as likely beneficiaries in this environment. The case is not as clear-cut as it is for Sasol, but the logic is similar: if the conflict lifts coal demand and prices, energy-linked exporters stand to benefit.

Still, there is an important warning label here. On the face of it,...