Crafted around a bird theme, South Africa's economy faces a crucial choice: 3% growth (African Fish Eagle), a lost decade (Marabou Stork), or low growth (Hadeda). Domestic reform delivery is key to escaping the most likely, complacent Hadeda scenario.

Before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, South Africa's growth prospects had perked up, thanks mainly to the fact that structural economic reforms had finally begun to take hold. But with global oil and financial markets in turmoil, our revival is in danger of being cut short.

Although domestic confidence is climbing, it has yet to build into the fixed investment upswing needed to sustain faster growth. This leaves the country in a vulnerable position.

We cannot stop the war, but we can (and must) tackle the country's internal challenges with renewed urgency to build our resilience and reinvigorate the economy.

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South Africa faces a set of crucial choices. The political and policy decisions we make now will determine whether growth collapses back to 0.5% a year or soars to 3% over the medium term; whether poverty eases or deepens; whether the fiscal position stabilises or deteriorates; and whether the balance of power tilts towards the reformers or the populists.

To understand both the costs of inaction and the benefits that could flow from timely action, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University has modelled three scenarios using a similar core econometric model as the National...