Does historical context shape younger citizens' propensity for unconventional forms of participation?
Key findings
- Of all measures of political participation we explored, voter turnout is the main activity in which a majority of Ugandans are involved (Figure 1).
- The proportion of Ugandans who reported participating in a protest or demonstration has fluctuated over the years, with peaks in 2011 (13%) and 2019 (16%), followed by sharp declines in 2015 (5%) and 2022 (5%), reaching its lowest level in 2024 (3%) (Figure 2).
- Nearly half (48%) of surveyed respondents belong to Gen C (Figure 3). They were born in 1993 or later and were at least 12 years old by 2005, when Uganda adopted a multiparty political system
- A small proportion of Ugandans report engaging directly with political leaders, with older generations more active than younger ones. About one-quarter of Gen A (22%) say they contacted an MP at least once in the previous year, compared to 18% of Gen B and only 14% of Gen C.
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Drawing on Bartels and Jackman's (2014) generational model of political learning, which posits that political attitudes and behaviours are shaped by the historical contexts in which individuals come of age, this study examines whether generational cohorts differ in patterns of political participation in Uganda. We identify three cohorts corresponding to key phases of Uganda's political history: Gen A, socialised during periods of political instability prior to the Museveni era; Gen B, shaped under the one-party regime; and Gen C, who came of age following the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 2005. Using Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) data from a nationally representative sample of adult Ugandans, we employ binary and ordinal logistic regression models to examine participation in both conventional and unconventional political activities. The results show that older cohorts are more likely to engage in conventional forms of participation, such as voting and contacting elected representatives, while younger cohorts exhibit greater participation in unconventional activities, particularly protests. To assess whether these patterns reflect cohort-specific political socialisation or age-related life-cycle effects, we replicate the analysis using comparable Afrobarometer data from Tanzania, a country with a distinct political history. The Tanzanian results reveal broadly similar generational patterns in conventional participation, suggesting that these differences may reflect age-related dynamics rather than cohort-specific socialisation alone. However, the specific unconventional repertoires through which generational differences manifest appear to be conditioned by each country's political environment. These findings call into question strong cohort based interpretations of political participation and underscore the importance of distinguishing generational from life-cycle effects in studies of political behaviour in Africa.
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Ssenkumba Muhammad Ssenkumba Muhammad is a statistician for Hatchile Consult Ltd., the Afrobarometer national partner in Uganda.
Kamal Yakubu Kamal Yakubu is Afrobarometer's capacity building manager (advanced Track).
