Kenya Mobile Subscriptions Rise to 51.4m As Growth Shifts to Usage

Communications Authority of Kenya said mobile subscriptions rose by 9 million to 51.36 million in the year to December 2025, up from 42.30 million the previous year.

The increase included a 5.6% rise in the December quarter, supported by higher consumer activity during the holiday period. The data shows continued expansion in connectivity, but market dynamics are changing.

Mobile money penetration reached 98%, limiting further user growth. Operators are now focusing on usage, including transaction frequency, balances, and additional services to drive revenue.

Safaricom's M-PESA remains the dominant platform, though its market share has declined from about 95% in 2023 to below 90% in 2025. Airtel Africa's Airtel Money has gained share through lower pricing and expanded agent networks.

Regulators are pushing for lower fees, with the Central Bank of Kenya targeting a reduction in transaction costs from about KES 23 to KES 10. Interoperability between networks has also reduced switching barriers, increasing competition.

Safaricom is responding by expanding services within M-PESA, including savings, credit, and investment products such as Ziidi. Airtel continues to compete on pricing and distribution to attract users.

Key Takeaways

Kenya's mobile money market is reaching saturation, shifting competition from user acquisition to engagement and monetisation. With penetration at 98%, growth will depend on how often users transact and how much value they keep within wallets. Safaricom is moving toward a platform model, embedding financial services such as savings, investments, and merchant tools to increase user activity and retention. This approach aims to offset declining switching costs as interoperability makes it easier for users to move across networks. Airtel's strategy focuses on pricing to gain market share, but regulatory pressure to lower fees will reduce its ability to compete on cost alone. As transaction fees converge, differentiation will depend on product depth, user experience, and ecosystem integration. For operators, margins may come under pressure as pricing falls, requiring new revenue streams from financial services. For investors, the shift indicates a more mature market where scale alone is not sufficient, and long-term value will depend on how effectively platforms convert access into sustained financial activity.

Read the original article on Daba Finance.