Claims that South Africa's economy is 'turning the corner' rest on modest growth gains, improved fiscal metrics, and targeted reforms, but these indicators mask deeper structural weaknesses. Without a decisive shift toward higher, investment-led and employment-intensive growth, the current trajectory risks entrenching stagnation, particularly as global economic shocks intensify.

This is Part 1 of a two-part Daily Maverick op-ed

Progress of economic reforms

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A growing chorus of voices is articulating the view that the South African economy is "turning the corner", emerging from the era of State Capture, Covid-19, and associated years of economic difficulty, and that we are on track to achieve a higher growth trajectory, and address key challenges such as unemployment.

It is argued that significant progress has been made in "structural reforms" aimed at stabilising and improving the performance of the network industries servicing business - in particular electricity and transport logistics. There has also been a modest increase in growth, from 0.6% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025.

On the macroeconomic front, projected stabilisation of debt, higher than projected revenue, budget surpluses, low inflation and a declining deficit are cited as evidence of improvement in the economy.

Further, our sovereign rating was upgraded, and we have been removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey list.

This has led to the belief in some circles, particularly the Treasury and organised business, that the economy is turning the corner, and that we are well positioned to accelerate growth and economic progress.

This turning-the-corner perspective...