South Africa: Withdrawing From Democracy? South Africans Increasingly Trust Army, Support Military Rule

16 April 2026
Afrobarometer (Accra)
By Rehan Visser

A majority of citizens see it as legitimate for the armed forces to take control of government if elected leaders abuse their power.

Key findings

  • In South Africa, only 1% of enumeration areas surveyed by Afrobarometer have soldiers visibly present. Among 38 African countries surveyed in 2024/2025, only Mauritius has less of a military presence.
  • Roughly two-thirds (68%) of citizens say they trust the SANDF "somewhat" or "a lot." Among 12 key government institutions the survey asked about, only the public broadcaster received a higher left of trust (72%).
  • Trust in the army has recovered to about the level recorded in 2015 (70%) after dropping to just half (49%) of the population in 2021.
  • Trust is especially strong among the wealthy (86%) and White South Africans (83%).
  • About half (49%) of respondents say they "approve" or "strongly approve" of the army coming in to govern the country, up from 9% in 2002. More South Africans now endorse than oppose (42%) military rule.
  • South African support for military rule is behind only five other surveyed countries in Africa and 20 percentage points above the continental average (29%).
  • More than seven in 10 Whites (73%) and Democratic Alliance supporters (71%) approve of a military takeover.
  • Respondents are more than twice as likely to support military rule if they trust the army (59%) than if they don't (28%), while support levels barely differ according to citizens' satisfaction with democracy or their perception of the government's economic performance.
  • A healthy majority (61%) of citizens agree that "it is legitimate for the armed forces to take control of government when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends."
  • Asked for their preference if the military were to intervene, South Africans are split: Similar shares say the military should restore civilian rule as soon as possible (32%), gradually transition back to civilian rule (34%), and rule for as long as it thinks it's good for the country (27%).

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South Africa's military has a chequered history. During the apartheid era, the Whites-only South African Defence Force (SADF) served the White-minority government's aims by, among other things, occupying Namibia (known until its independence in 1990 as South West Africa), launching cross-border raids on suspected bases of liberation movements, and supporting anti-Marxist guerilla groups in neighbouring countries, including during the Angolan civil war (South African History Archive, 2026).

Fuelled by compulsory conscription of White males from 1952 to 1994 (Callister, 2007), the military stationed troops in Black townships throughout the 1980s. Ill-equipped soldiers conducted terror campaigns and meted out violence to generate fear among residents and snuff out resistance to the state (South African History Archive, 2026). At the end of apartheid, the SADF was merged with 95,000 soldiers from other armies - the four defence forces of former independent "homelands" and two liberation forces - to form the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) (Lesego, 2026).

Since then, the military has faced numerous controversies. In 1998, 600 South African troops were sent into Lesotho to quell unrest after a disputed election. Facing strong resistance, and hampered by poor intelligence and tactical shortcomings, the operation was bungled, resulting in the deaths of nine SANDF soldiers, at least 50 Lesotho Defence Force soldiers, and 40 civilians (Stott, 2002).

In 1999, after intense lobbying by the South African Navy and others, the government signed a R29-billion deal with European defence contractors to supply warships, submarines, fighter jets, and helicopters. Activists and defence experts criticised the purchase as being unnecessary and prohibitively expensive (Sylvester & Seegers, 2008). The transaction was later found to be highly corrupt. Schabir Shaik, financial adviser to then-Deputy President Jacob Zuma and brother of SANDF's head of acquisitions, was found guilty of fraud and corruption, while former African National Congress chief whip Tony Yengeni went to jail for receiving a bribe (Kriegler, 2014). Zuma's legal case of 783 counts of corruption relating to the deal is still ongoing (Gumede, 2025).

More recently, allegations have surfaced regarding the existence of an SANDF "torture squad." According to investigative journalists, from 2019 onward a group of elite soldiers and SANDF officials engaged in criminal activity and significant abuses, including illegal espionage, the torture and abduction of civilians, and the assassination of an investigator from the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, Lt. Col. Frans Mathipa, who had been looking into their crimes (Carte Blanche, 2023). In 2025, 12 SANDF personnel were arrested in connection with Mathipa's murder (van Vuuren, 2025).

South Africa's army has been deployed several times in recent years. As part of the government's COVID-19 response, up to 8,200 soldiers, medics, and engineers were used to enforce regulations (Olivier, 2021). The SANDF was sued for harassment, assault, and three murders committed during this period (Felix, 2023). In July 2021 25,000 troops responded to civil unrest, the largest deployment in the post-apartheid era (Olivier, 2021).

Despite an internal SANDF audit showing that only 27% of its personnel were fit enough to be deployed, in February 2026 President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a year-long deployment of 2,200 soldiers to criminal hotspots around the country to tackle gang violence and illicit mining (Gibson, 2025; Fihlani & Ngcobo, 2026). Criminologists argue that the 12-month operation, which started in March, is more political than strategic. They point out that in past deployments, gangs simply shifted their activities to neighbouring areas or bribed police officers. Deployment can even backfire: Once the army leaves, it may generate worse violence as new turf wars flare up. Meanwhile, even members of established gangs have welcomed the army's arrival, highlighting that it could reduce competition by targeting upstarts (Petrovic & Brookbanks, 2026; Ludidi, 2026).

But what do ordinary citizens think of the military? Findings from Afrobarometer's Round 10 (2025) survey show that about half of South Africans now support military rule, up from about one-tenth in the early 2000s. Support for military rule is twice as high among those who trust the SANDF as among those who don't. (For more on attitudes toward democracy, see Mpako and Ndoma (2026).)

Two-thirds of respondents say they trust the army "somewhat" or "a lot." Trust levels have rebounded to those observed a decade ago after falling by more than 20 percentage points between 2015 and 2021.

Whites and wealthy South Africans are more likely than other races and poorer respondents to trust the SANDF and voice support for military rule.

Six in 10 respondents say the armed forces may intervene when elected leaders abuse their power. Asked how soon the military should restore civilian rule after a coup, only one-third of citizens say it should be restored immediately.

Rehan Visser Rehan Visser is an editor at Afrobarometer

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