Malawi risks remaining trapped in a damaging cycle of export bans unless government urgently shifts to predictable, rule-based trade policies, agricultural experts have warned.
The caution emerged during a high-level policy dialogue in Lilongwe, where researchers and policymakers dissected the real impact of trade restrictions on the country's fragile agricultural sector--and found a pattern of short-term fixes causing long-term harm.
Dr. Innocent Pangapanga Phiri, Director and Senior Economist at the Centre of Agricultural Research and Development (CARD) at the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), said export bans may appear effective on the surface but ultimately backfire.
"While restrictions can temporarily lower prices, they eventually lead to supply shortages and higher costs," he said.
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He explained that although prices dip in the short term, they rebound sharply over time as supply fails to keep up with demand--leaving consumers worse off and markets more unstable.
The hardest hit are rural households, who face a double blow of falling incomes and shrinking purchasing power.
"When you impose a ban, trade doesn't stop--it simply goes underground. The country loses revenue, and the market becomes harder to control," Pangapanga Phiri added.
Dr. Christone Nyondo, Research Fellow at the MwAPATA Institute, pointed to a deeper structural problem: Malawi is simply not producing enough.
"For maize, in some years we produce less than the national requirement, or just barely enough. That leaves almost no surplus for industry or exports," he said.
He noted that similar shortfalls persist in key crops like soybeans, forcing government into reactive measures that disrupt markets instead of stabilising them.
But it is the unpredictability that is doing the most damage.
"If the market is not predictable, it is not rational for producers to invest. These ad hoc bans are killing incentives and undermining production," Nyondo warned.
Experts at the dialogue were united on one point: Malawi cannot ban its way out of this problem.
They called for a decisive shift toward boosting agricultural productivity--through stronger seed systems, improved soil health, and better extension services--alongside the adoption of clear, rule-based trade policies guided by market indicators, not sudden political decisions.
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The meeting, organised by the MwAPATA Institute in collaboration with LUANAR, aimed to generate evidence and build consensus for long-overdue reforms.
Without that shift, experts say, Malawi will remain locked in a self-defeating loop--where each export ban deepens the very instability it is meant to solve.
