Southern Africa's aviation sector is staring down a deepening crisis, with airlines warning that a lack of clarity over jet fuel availability beyond May 2026 could trigger widespread disruption to schedules, rising ticket prices and broader economic fallout.
In a strongly worded statement, Aaron Munetsi, CEO of the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA), said the industry is operating in an increasingly precarious environment, with insufficient information about future fuel supplies leaving airlines unable to plan with confidence.
"The Airlines Association of Southern Africa notes with grave concern the lack of clarity around the availability of jet fuel across the Southern African Development Community region, beyond May 2026," Munetsi said, underscoring the urgency of the situation.
Air transport remains a critical pillar of economic activity across the Southern African Development Community (SADC), supporting trade, tourism and the movement of essential goods. Yet, as Munetsi pointed out, the sector is uniquely vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions due to its near-total dependence on imported crude oil and refined Jet-A1 kerosene.
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"Airlines require certainty on the security of jet fuel supplies beyond a six-week horizon if they are to maintain their schedules and fulfil their obligations to customers," he said.
The current uncertainty is linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, which have disrupted fuel shipments and sent shockwaves through global energy markets. While there is hope that the situation may stabilise, Munetsi warned that the aviation sector cannot afford to rely on optimism alone.
"While we hope the situation in the Gulf will be resolved sooner so fuel shipments can resume, we must safeguard aviation in case the impasse continues," he said.
AASA is now calling on fuel suppliers, storage depots, including airport facilities, and SADC governments to urgently provide clear contingency plans for fuel allocation and distribution.
"With this in mind, AASA pleads with the region's fuel suppliers, depots (including airports) and all the SADC member governments to urgently share their contingency fuel allocation and distribution plans with the aviation industry," Munetsi stressed.
Even in a best-case scenario, where critical shipping routes such as the Straits of Hormuz are fully reopened, recovery will not be immediate. Munetsi cautioned that structural damage to refining infrastructure in the Gulf will prolong the crisis.
"Even when the Straits of Hormuz blockades are lifted, it will take months at the very least for fuel production to return to its previous output as several refineries in the Gulf have been damaged and will need to be repaired or rebuilt," he said.
This lag, he added, makes transparency around fuel stocks and reserves non-negotiable.
"This is why we need transparent updates on fuel stocks, including what has been ordered but must still be delivered as well as the status of national strategic fuel reserves, the conditions that would trigger their release and how those reserves would be allocated and prioritised."
The financial strain on airlines has already reached critical levels. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, jet fuel prices in Southern Africa have surged dramatically.
These increases, driven by rising crude oil prices and fears over supply security, have compounded an already challenging cost environment for African carriers.
"The increases have exacerbated the situation for African airlines, which, even before the current crisis, were paying some of the highest jet fuel prices in the world," Munetsi noted.
"In fact, jet fuel accounted for up to 40% of some of our region's carriers' costs." In response, most SADC-based airlines have introduced fuel surcharges to recover escalating costs, while some have begun trimming operations.
"The latest spike has prompted most SADC-based airlines to implement cost recovery mechanisms in the form of fuel surcharges, and some carriers have also begun reducing frequencies and consolidating flights," Munetsi said.
However, he warned that such measures are not sustainable in the absence of reliable information.
"Airlines cannot plan or operate in an information vacuum," he said.
Passengers and businesses are already feeling the impact, with higher ticket prices placing additional strain on consumers and threatening to slow economic activity. Munetsi acknowledged the broader implications, highlighting aviation's role in enabling the movement of goods and services.
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"Airlines are painfully aware of the pressure that increased ticket prices exert on their customers and the ripple effects across the economy," he said. "We all depend on air transport, not only for flying passengers, but for the transport of goods and essential pharmaceuticals and other perishables, e-commerce goods, courier services and high-value cargo."
"At the same time, airlines should not be expected to absorb the shock on their own," Munetsi said, calling for a coordinated response across the aviation value chain.
He urged airports and air navigation service providers to step up and play their part in mitigating the crisis.
"Now, more than at any other time, they have a responsibility to ensure they operate with maximum efficiency by eliminating congestion and delays that waste fuel and increase costs," he said, adding that avoidable inefficiencies are exacerbating an already dire situation.
