Global oil prices rise and fall, but Kenya's pump prices stay high? The data says, mostly yes
- The Epra director is right that crude oil prices have trended upward since February 2026, but skirts over the sharp spike and subsequent drop that have informed Kenya's fuel pricing.
- Nyoro accurately cited peak oil prices during the 2022 surge and the subsidised pump prices Kenyans paid at the time.
- However, he overstated his case by calling those the highest prices ever paid in 2022. In fact, fuel costs rose significantly higher in the months that followed, even as global oil prices eased.
A politician and a regulator recently clashed on live television over a familiar question: Why do fuel prices in Kenya seem to rise quickly when global oil prices increase, but fall slowly, if at all, when they drop?
The debate followed a sharp fuel increase in mid-April 2026 by Kenya's energy regulator, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra), which cited "escalated prices in the international market".
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The move triggered public backlash and political pressure, prompting the government to halve the value added tax (VAT) on fuel in a bid to ease the burden on consumers.
Officials attributed the rise to global disruptions, including the US-Israel-Iran war, affecting oil supply routes. Some politicians, however, alleged mismanagement and profit motives, referencing an oil import scandal that led to the abrupt exit of three senior energy officials, including Epra's chief executive.
It is against this backdrop that lawmaker and former budget committee chair Ndindi Nyoro and Epra's petroleum and gas director Edward Kinyua joined other guests on the 15 April Citizen TV show, where they made competing claims about prices.
We examined four of these, focusing on recent oil price trends, past peaks and whether current fuel prices reflect global market movements.
Kinyua said global oil prices had risen, and that this had "reflected itself in the cargoes that we are receiving".
"The barrel has moved from$60 that we had seen somewhere in February. Today, we are talking of $101 per barrel," he said.
Kenya no longer refines crude oil domestically and instead imports refined petroleum products, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE's main grade, Murban crude, serves as a regional benchmark. Kenya's central bank and national statistics agency track it as a key reference price.
Data from the statistics agency shows the price per barrel at $67.90 in February 2026, rising to a peak of $97.99 on 26 March.
Around the time of Kinya's 15 April TV appearance, prices had reached $90.33 on 9 April, before easing slightly to $89.61 by 16 April.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also publishes a benchmark basket price. This rose from $64.94 in early February to a peak of $146.05 on 19 March, before falling to $104.56 by 15 April.
Kinyua's claim captures the upward trend since February. But the data shows prices have been volatile and not a steady climb, and these fluctuations are what shape Kenya's fuel pricing.
Nyoro argued that even when global oil prices were higher in the past, Kenyans had not had to pay as much as they did at present. The mid-April increase by Epra pushed pump prices to as high as KSh206 per litre.
"Oil per barrel in 2022, around May, was around $115 per barrel, but the amount Kenyans paid at the pump, the highest ever they paid, was KSh160 for petrol and KSh140 for diesel," said Nyoro, who represents the central Kenya constituency of Kiharu.
Nyoro was broadly right that crude oil cost around $115 per barrel in May 2022. Kenya's statistics agency recorded an average of $113.87 that month.
But his claim about pump prices needs context. On 14 May 2022, Epra's maximum price in Nairobi was KSh150.12 for petrol and KSh131 for diesel. Prices in some remote northern towns did reach levels close to Nyoro's figures, with petrol selling for between KSh160.83 and KSh163.15 in Elwak, Eldas and Mandera, but these were not typical nationwide.
Even when crude peaked at $117.72 in June of that year, retail prices remained unchanged for three months, from June to August, at KSh159.94 for petrol and KSh140.91 for diesel. This was largely due to heavy government subsidies during the election period.
But more significantly, Nyoro's description of those prices as "the highest Kenyans ever paid" is incorrect.
After president William Ruto took office in September 2022, he scrapped subsidies. As a result, pump prices that month rose sharply to KSh180.05 for petrol and KSh165.91 for diesel, even when crude prices had fallen to $95.32.
Throughout 2023, despite global crude oil prices fluctuating between $75.19 and $94.6, average pump prices remained elevated, peaking at KSh217.97 for petrol and KSh206.21 for diesel in October.
We rate the claim as exaggerated. While the global oil price figure in May 2022 is accurate, Nyoro's claim that the local pump prices then were the highest ever paid in Kenya is false. The real peaks came later, even as crude became cheaper.
"Currently, the barrel of oil, now, as we talk ... is $98 per barrel as it is today ... but Kenyans are paying KSh206," Nyoro claimed, adding that this was higher than what Kenyans paid in 2022.
But both figures are inaccurate.
On 15 April 2026, the day of his TV appearance, the OPEC basket price was $104.56 per barrel, not $98. While Murban crude came closest to Nyoro's figure, peaking at $97.99 on 26 March, prices had moved well above that level by the time he spoke. US data for Brent crude, another major benchmark, on that date puts the price even higher, at $114.93.
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Revised pricing following the VAT cut put maximum prices in Nairobi at KSh197.60 for petrol and KSh196.63 for diesel. Prices in some remote towns were higher, reaching up to KSh219.78, but KSh206 was not the prevailing national price.
Nyoro complained that while global oil prices remained below their 2022 peak, pump prices in Kenya had climbed to record levels.
He was right that global crude oil prices had not returned to their June 2022 high of $117.72 per barrel, and that current pump prices exceeded those paid in 2022. (Note: On publication on 30 April 2026 global prices have now hit those levels.)
But describing those pump prices as "unprecedented" is inaccurate. Kenya's highest recorded retail pump prices came in October 2023, reaching up to KSh225.64 for petrol and KSh214.99 for diesel in Mandera town in the north.
The average prices nationally, at KSh217.97 for petrol and KSh206.21 for diesel, were also higher than they are now.
Nyoro's broader point - that pump prices in Kenya are high relative to global crude prices - is supported by the data. However, a key element of his claim overstates the situation.
