Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has traversed Kenya proclaiming: "I will support Kalonzo Musyoka for President in 2027. Kenya owes him."
Kalonzo Musyoka appears convinced. Kamba ears want to believe it. After six decades of "tutaona," any pledge feels like progress.
I don't believe him for a second.
Kenyan politics has a manual. And Gachagua is playing page one: "Use the elder, discard him later."
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In 2023, while still Deputy President, Gachagua branded Kalonzo "a failed project for Kamba." Today, out of office, Kalonzo is suddenly a "statesman." The only thing that shifted is Gachagua's address -- from Karen to Wamunyoro.
Rule 1 of Kenyan betrayal: when a leader loses power, he rediscovers old allies. Not to uplift them, but to exploit them.
Gachagua cannot deliver Mt. Kenya to Kalonzo. The arithmetic -- and the IEBC tallies -- prove it.
2013 Presidential Results -- Raila/Kalonzo Ticket in Mt. Kenya
Average: Mt. Kenya delivered overwhelmingly for Uhuru/Ruto. Raila-Kalonzo barely crossed double digits.
2017 was worse. In Nyeri, Uhuru/Ruto crossed 90 percent while the Raila-Kalonzo ticket remained politically insignificant.
Mt. Kenya voters rejected Kalonzo twice as Raila's deputy. Many still believe he "betrayed Kibaki" by joining CORD in 2013. That perception has not faded -- it has been reinforced for years by UDA rallies branding him "watermelon."
If Gachagua tells Wamunyoro "Vote Kalonzo" in 2027, two things happen immediately:
- Mt. Kenya punishes him politically for "selling the mountain."
- Gachagua risks losing his standing as the region's dominant political kingpin.
No politician commits political suicide to crown another man. Gachagua won't be the first.
If Kalonzo could not break 15 percent in Mt. Kenya as Raila's running mate, Gachagua cannot suddenly manufacture 50%+1 for him as President.
The real calculation is not 2027. It is 2032.
Gachagua's long-term ambition is visible from a distance.
The script appears straightforward:
- Back Kalonzo publicly.
- Let him lose to William Ruto.
- Return afterward telling Mt. Kenya: "See? Only one of us can win nationally."
Under that arrangement, Kalonzo becomes less of a genuine presidential project and more of a political bridge toward Gachagua's future ambitions.
And if Kalonzo actually wins in 2027, Gachagua's own State House calculations collapse completely.
Politicians do not spend years constructing another man's presidency while burying their own future.
Kenya has seen this film before.
- In 2002, Michael Wamalwa Kijana helped consolidate Western support for the NARC coalition, only to end up politically sidelined.
- In 2007, Kalonzo himself became Vice President under Mwai Kibaki after fracturing the opposition vote, but his office carried little real power.
- In 2013, Musalia Mudavadi was heavily courted before eventually being politically discarded.
- In 2022, Gachagua helped deliver Mt. Kenya to Ruto, only to later find himself isolated and weakened politically.
Kenyan coalition politics rewards utility, not loyalty.
Gachagua has learned from the masters. Now he appears to be teaching the same class.
Supporters of this alliance want Kamba voters to imagine this is another "Kibaki Tosha" moment. It is not.
When Raila Odinga declared "Kibaki Tosha" in 2002, he made real sacrifices. He shelved his own presidential ambitions, dissolved his political vehicle into a coalition structure, and actively transferred his political base behind Kibaki.
Gachagua has sacrificed nothing comparable.
He still maintains his own political machinery. He still preserves his separate political identity. He has not dissolved his political movement into Wiper. Most importantly, he has not demonstrated that Mt. Kenya voters are prepared to genuinely embrace Kalonzo as their preferred presidential candidate.
"Kibaki Tosha" was a transfer of political capital.
"Kalonzo Tosha" currently looks more like positioning for a future Gachagua presidential run.
If Gachagua is genuine, then a few simple questions should not be difficult to answer.
Will he subordinate his political movement fully to Kalonzo's campaign?
Will he campaign aggressively for Kalonzo deep inside Mt. Kenya strongholds?
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Will he publicly commit to backing Kalonzo beyond 2027 even if the bid fails?
If those questions remain unanswered, Kamba voters should draw their own conclusions.
Because rhetoric is cheap in Kenyan politics. Political sacrifice is not.
The bigger lesson for Ukambani is this: stop waiting for another region to crown a Kamba President.
It has never happened before. There is little evidence it will suddenly begin in 2027.
Kamba votes must stop being donated emotionally and start being negotiated strategically.
Kalonzo can become President. But it will not happen because another politician suddenly discovered moral obligation toward Ukambani.
It will happen only when Kamba politics stops behaving like a pawn and starts behaving like a price.
Augustus Kyalo Muli is the leader of the NLP Party and a Kenyan political commentator focused on governance, coalition politics, electoral strategy, and regional power dynamics.
