On the surface, it may appear that President Cyril Ramaphosa is in a very difficult political position, but an examination of the interests of those involved suggests it is unlikely that he will be forced to leave office. It appears likely he will survive any parliamentary process and stay. Unless he decides to go.

Friday's Constitutional Court ruling that Parliament had behaved unconstitutionally by not proceeding with an impeachment committee sets in train a process that will force MPs to consider the evidence against President Cyril Ramaphosa.

On the face of it, the evidence against him is strong.

As has been outlined several times in the past, it is obvious he has not been honest about where the US dollars stolen from his couch came from. Even his own version is nonsensical.

However, while the impeachment proceedings do have a legal aspect, the decision about whether to remove Ramaphosa is up to the National Assembly. It is a political decision.

The Constitution demands that two-thirds of the 400 MPs must support the motion. This means that it would require more than even the entire caucuses of the ANC and the DA.

Even if some ANC MPs voted against Ramaphosa (following the lead of Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, who voted for Parliament to continue with the report in 2022), it seems unlikely that he would lose such a vote.

It would instead require the ANC to turn wholesale against Ramaphosa for this to happen. But it is almost certainly not in the...