The escalating conflict in the Middle East is now hitting Malawians where it hurts most -- on food prices, transport costs and farming inputs -- with a new regional report warning that Malawi is among the hardest-hit countries in Africa.
According to the April 2026 report by the Africa Food Trade and Resilience Initiative, fertiliser prices in Malawi and Mozambique have recorded some of the sharpest increases on the continent following the intensifying US-Israel war on Iran and disruptions along the strategic Strait of Hormuz trade route.
The Strait of Hormuz carries at least 20 percent of global seaborne oil, liquefied natural gas and fertiliser shipments. Reduced movement through the route has shaken global supply chains, pushing up fuel and fertiliser prices worldwide.
For Malawi, which relies heavily on imports, the impact has been immediate and severe.
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The report shows that urea fertiliser prices in Malawi and Mozambique surged by between 36 and 58 percent in just one month and are now nearly 90 percent higher than they were a year ago.
The sharp rise is expected to worsen the already painful cost of living crisis facing ordinary Malawians, many of whom are struggling with soaring food prices, expensive transport fares, forex shortages and stagnant incomes.
Scotland-based Malawian economist Velli Nyirongo warned that fuel prices remain the biggest danger to Malawi's fragile economy because almost every sector depends on fuel-driven transportation and production.
"Malawi imports most of its petroleum products, so any disruption to global oil supply or rise in prices directly increases domestic inflation, transport costs and production expenses," he said.
Nyirongo explained that once fuel prices rise, the shock spreads rapidly across the economy, affecting farming, manufacturing, distribution and household spending.
He further warned that rising import costs place even more pressure on Malawi's already strained foreign exchange reserves, making it harder for businesses to import goods and stabilise prices.
Economics Association of Malawi president Bertha Bangara-Chikadza said the crisis exposes how vulnerable Malawi is to global political conflicts despite being thousands of kilometres away from the war zone.
"Malawi being a landlocked country is very exposed to global fuel and geopolitical shocks," she said.
"We are heavily dependent on imports like fuel and fertiliser, thus any shocks in the global economy affect the country."
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Bangara-Chikadza also pointed to Malawi's own economic weaknesses -- including poor fiscal discipline, climate-related food shortages and unstable markets -- as factors worsening the impact of imported inflation.
The warning comes at a time when government authorities have been trying to stabilise the kwacha and reduce inflation after years of economic turbulence.
However, economists now fear that fresh geopolitical tensions could derail those efforts, pushing prices even higher and delaying hopes for lower interest rates and economic recovery.
The report further warns that persistently high fertiliser prices could trigger a deeper food security crisis if farmers are forced to reduce fertiliser usage or abandon certain crops because of unaffordable input costs.
Such a development could lower crop yields, reduce food production and push maize and other staple food prices even further beyond the reach of ordinary households.
With fuel, fertiliser and transport costs continuing to rise globally, experts say Malawi faces the risk of another wave of inflation that could leave millions of citizens paying more for nearly every basic necessity.
