South Africa entered the 2026-27 maize marketing year with another record harvest and sizeable carryover stocks after exports in the previous season fell short of expectations amid weak demand from traditional Far East buyers. However, improving regional demand in southern Africa, possible tighter supplies linked to an approaching El Niño cycle, and firmer global prices could revive export activity and support maize prices in the months ahead.

When the South African maize industry began its 2025-26 marketing year in May last year, there was optimism that it would be a bumper harvest year with a large surplus for export markets.

Indeed, we ended the year with a large harvest of about 16.5 million tonnes, supported by the La Niña rains and decent plantings. Such an ample harvest clearly showed that the exports would be significant, as it far surpassed SA's domestic maize needs of about 12.0 million tonnes.

In doubt about how much demand would be in the market, various grain analysts, including ourselves, placed SA's maize export forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ended recently in April 2026, at 2.4 million tonnes.

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The size of these exports also meant large volumes would carry over into the following year as carryover stock. But as the year progressed, we encountered weaker-than-usual demand. By the time the 2025-26 marketing year ended in April, exports were only about 2.0 million tonnes, well below the industry's conservative export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes set at the start of the season. The typical buyers of South African maize in the Far East markets, such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea, were...