Six weeks into Malawi's tobacco marketing season, farmers have earned about K120 billion ($68 million) from tobacco sales. But despite hopes for a stronger season, the latest figures show the industry is still lagging behind last year's performance.
Data from the Tobacco Commission (TC) indicate that growers have sold 32.7 million kilogrammes of tobacco at an average price of $2.09 (about K3 799) per kilogramme since the market opened on April 20.
While the figures may appear impressive at first glance, a comparison with the same period last year paints a different picture.
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By this stage in the 2025 marketing season, Malawi had already earned $100 million (about K175 billion) from the sale of 42 million kilogrammes at an average price of $2.32 (about K4 079) per kilogramme.
This means that compared to last year, farmers have so far earned 32 percent less revenue, sold 22 percent less tobacco, and received prices that are about 10 percent lower.
The good news: Rejections are falling
One area where this year's market appears to be improving is in the rejection rate.
When sales opened, farmers faced a crisis as buyers rejected between 90 and 100 percent of tobacco presented at some floors, forcing many growers to take their bales back home.
However, the situation has improved significantly in recent weeks.
Current data show rejection rates have fallen to around 55 percent, although this remains far above last year's overall rejection rate of 26 percent.
Farmers attribute the improvement to the intervention of Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development Roza Mbilizi, who met tobacco buyers after widespread complaints from growers.
Tama Farmers Trust president Abiel Kalima Banda said the high rejection levels have been the biggest factor slowing down sales.
"Prices remain very low considering the cost of production. The situation is even worse on auction floors compared to contract markets," he said.
Is this year's tobacco season better?
Based on the figures released so far, the answer is not yet.
Although rejection rates are gradually improving, farmers are still receiving lower prices and the country has earned significantly less foreign exchange than it had at the same point last year.
The industry is also battling another major challenge: too much tobacco and too few buyers.
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According to the Tobacco Commission, Malawi is expected to produce 197 million kilogrammes this year, yet buyers are only looking for about 170 million kilogrammes.
This means supply is exceeding demand by about 27 million kilogrammes, putting downward pressure on prices.
Adding to the concern is the reduction in the number of buying companies. This season only eight buyers are operating on the market compared to 11 last year.
TC spokesperson Telephorus Chigwenembe said quality remains crucial in a market flooded with tobacco.
"The market is progressing well and we are encouraged by the downward trend in rejections," he said.
Can the season recover?
There is still room for optimism.
With more than 160 million kilogrammes of tobacco yet to reach the market, industry players believe earnings could improve if rejection rates continue to fall and growers present better-quality leaf.
Last season, Malawi sold 221 million kilogrammes of tobacco and generated a record $542 million (about K945 billion) at an average price of $2.46 per kilogramme.
For this year's crop to match or surpass that performance, prices will need to improve substantially and buyers will have to absorb much larger volumes in the coming months.
For now, the numbers suggest that while the market is becoming more stable than it was at the start of the season, 2026 is still trailing behind last year's tobacco performance in terms of earnings, volumes sold and prices paid to farmers.
