Malawi is expected to register an average maize harvest this year, offering some relief after last season's poor performance, but experts warn that the projected output will still fall below the country's annual food requirement.
According to the latest analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), national maize production during the 2025/26 agricultural season is expected to be average, largely due to favourable rainfall conditions experienced across much of the country.
The assessment, contained in FEWS NET's Key Message Update for May to September 2026 released on June 9, indicates that harvesting began in April in the Southern Region and has since progressed to central and northern districts.
While describing the harvest outlook as average, the figures show that Malawi is still expected to face a maize deficit.
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In March this year, the Reserve Bank of Malawi projected that the country would harvest approximately 3.3 million metric tonnes of maize in the 2025/26 season. This represents an increase of about 400,000 metric tonnes, or nearly 14 percent, from the 2.9 million metric tonnes harvested during the previous season.
However, the projected harvest remains about 200,000 metric tonnes below Malawi's estimated annual national maize requirement of 3.5 million metric tonnes.
This means that even with improved production, the country may still need to rely on strategic grain reserves, imports, irrigation harvests and private sector stocks to bridge the gap.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the main rain-fed harvest accounts for about 80 percent of Malawi's total maize production, while irrigation and residual-moisture farming contribute the remaining 20 percent.
Despite the generally positive outlook, FEWS NET says weather-related challenges reduced yields in several parts of the country.
The report notes that below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the critical maize flowering stage affected crops in the Southern Lakeshore, Middle Shire and Lower Shire livelihood zones.
In addition, heavy rains experienced between March 15 and March 20 triggered flash floods in several districts in the central and southern regions, destroying crops and reducing yields in affected communities.
As a result, while the national picture appears stable, some households in vulnerable areas are expected to harvest less than normal and may continue facing food insecurity.
The improved harvest is already having an impact on food prices.
According to FEWS NET, increased availability of maize at household and market levels has started pushing prices down across the country.
Nationally, maize grain prices fell by approximately 15 percent between March and April, dropping from an average of K1,025 per kilogramme to K892 per kilogramme.
The Southern Region experienced the sharpest decline, with prices falling by about 25 percent as newly harvested maize entered markets and demand reduced.
However, despite these reductions, maize prices remain significantly higher than normal.
FEWS NET says current prices are still about 85 percent above the average recorded between 2022 and 2024, meaning many poor households continue to struggle to afford food purchases.
The report warns that elevated prices are particularly affecting rural and urban families that exhausted their food stocks before harvest and still depend on the market to meet their food needs.
Meanwhile, agriculture policy expert Leonard Chimwaza has expressed concern over delays by the Ministry of Agriculture in releasing third-round crop estimates.
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He said updated production figures are crucial for effective planning by government, development partners and private sector players.
"If they released the figures, we would have a practical outlook of what Malawi will harvest for planning purposes," said Chimwaza.
The Ministry of Agriculture is yet to provide an official comment on this year's expected harvest, with ministry spokesperson Salome Gangire indicating that more time was needed before responding.
For now, the numbers suggest that Malawi's maize sector is recovering from last year's difficulties. Production is expected to rise from 2.9 million metric tonnes to around 3.3 million metric tonnes, but the country still faces a shortfall of roughly 200,000 metric tonnes against national demand.
The challenge for policymakers will therefore not only be increasing production but also ensuring that maize remains affordable and accessible to millions of households who continue to feel the effects of high food prices.
