• South African motorists will see petrol prices drop by R1 a litre and diesel by R2.60 this coming 1 July.

• The government is stopping fuel tax relief on 1 July which adds money back to the pumps and shrinks savings.

South African motorists can look forward to a fuel price drop on 1 July. Pump costs should drop despite the war in the Middle East.

Before tax changes, 95 octane petrol could drop by R2.52 a litre. Wholesale diesel could drop by up to R4.57 a litre, and paraffin could go down by R4.88 a litre.

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But the actual savings will be smaller because the government is bringing back the full fuel tax on 1 July.

This move adds R1.50 a litre to petrol and R1.97 to diesel. If prices changed today, petrol would drop by about R1 a litre and diesel by R2.60 a litre.

A R3 tax break started in April and hit R3.93 for diesel in May. The government halved the relief for June and stops it completely in July. This restores the tax to R4.10 for petrol and R3.93 for diesel.

Nobody knows what happens to the Slate levy. In June, it hit R1.57 a litre because the slate fund had a huge negative balance of R18.28 billion.

The debt is unlikely to hit the negative R500-million mark needed to scrap the tax. It might drop if importers pay less globally. There is also a small quarterly change between 93 and 95 octane prices.

Final prices depend on the rand and oil over the next two weeks. A stronger rand currently adds 14c to 18c in savings. The government locks in final prices by 30 June.

Right now, fuel prices are at record highs. Petrol costs R28.06 a litre in Gauteng and R27.19 at the coast. Wholesale diesel costs R27.93 in Gauteng and R27.05 at the coast.

Diesel hit a record over R30 a litre in May but dropped by R2.60 in June.