Every conflict leaves behind a lesson. Some are written in history books. Others are written in the lives of ordinary people.
For Ethiopia, one lesson has become increasingly difficult to ignore- when one method of destabilizing the country fails, another quickly takes its place.
Years ago, the remnants of the now-defunct TPLF relied on illegal gold trade, foreign currency manipulation and economic sabotage to weaken the Ethiopian state. But instead of embracing peace after the Pretoria Agreement, the group adopted an even darker strategy. The group is turning the youth of Tigray into the latest victims of its political survival.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivered that message with unusual clarity this week as he addressed the final session of the Fifth House of People's Representatives. His speech was not merely a review of the government's achievements. It was also a warning that the greatest tragedy unfolding in northern Ethiopia today is not being inflicted by outsiders, but by a criminal faction that continues to sacrifice the very people it claims to represent.
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"Worst of all, a vast number of youth of Tigray are currently being forcibly abducted and sold into the ongoing conflict in Sudan," the Prime Minister told Parliament.
"In the Sudanese war, young Tigrayans are losing their lives in a conflict that does not concern them. As if the predicament within Ethiopia were not enough, the crisis has now spilled over into Sudan. Throughout all of this, the people of Tigray remain the primary victims."
Those remarks captured a painful transformation.
The organization that once financed itself through illicit economic networks has, according to the Prime Minister, reached a point where even its own youth have become commodities. Unable to regain political legitimacy, unwilling to pursue peace, and incapable of rebuilding public trust, the armed remnant has resorted to forced recruitment and the trafficking of young Tigrayans into a foreign war.
It is a tragic descent that reflects not the interests of the people of Tigray, but the desperation of a leadership determined to survive at any cost.
To explain why the cycle of conflict continues despite repeated peace efforts, the Prime Minister expressed it in metaphor calling it " axe and the woodcutter."
"This metaphorical axe involves three distinct actors," he said. "The first actor is the sharpened iron head that does the actual cutting. The second actor is the wooden handle curved to fit into it. The third actor is the hand that wields the wooden handle to chop."
He then identified each part of the metaphor.
"The TPLF operates like the iron head of the axe. The wooden handle is akin to Shabya (the regime in Asmera). The primary commanders and interested parties are entirely separate entities. If we clash merely with the iron head of the axe, the conflict will persist as long as the handle remains; if we clash with the handle, we will still fail to secure lasting peace so long as the entity directing the handle exists."
The Prime Minister's analogy echoed what several former senior TPLF figures have been saying for months.
Aregawi Berhe, one of the original founding leaders of the TPLF, who later left the group, recently told ENA that the federal government had made genuine efforts to implement the Pretoria Peace Agreement, but the armed faction never intended to honor it.
"The federal government was working hard to facilitate the peace process in that region," he said. "But the recipient of that effort was not up to any type of peace agreement."
Instead, he argued, the group used the peace agreement as an opportunity to regroup.
"They want to use the Pretoria peace process to gain time and to reorganize themselves to continue their ill-fated intentions."
According to Aregawi, many veteran fighters eventually abandoned the organization because they saw no future under the current leadership.
" Most of the old-generation army has left the organization because they see no future in this leadership," he said. To replace them, the faction increasingly turned to children.
"They snatch kids as young as 13 and 14," he revealed, describing how desperate families have been sending their children across the Red Sea and through Sudan simply to escape forced recruitment.
Professor Kindeya Gebrehiwot, who served as Cabinet Secretariat Head in the first Tigray Interim Regional Administration, has delivered a similar warning.
He stressed that Ethiopians should never confuse the armed faction with the people of Tigray.
" And this criminal group still continues to cause serious concerns that could lead to any confrontation," he said, adding that "this group cannot live without such a conflict."
According to the professor, every opportunity for peace and recovery has been deliberately undermined. Successive interim administrations, including those led by Getachew Reda and later Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede--faced obstruction whenever they attempted to stabilize the region.
"Whenever there is an opportunity to advance peace, recovery and institutional stability, they seek to create obstacles and maintain conditions of confrontation," he said.
His warning regarding the region's youth was equally direct.
"Many young people are rejecting the prospect of war. There is a growing sentiment throughout Tigray that another round of fighting would be catastrophic for the region."
The Prime Minister illustrated that reality with a striking comparison.
A Tigrayan living peacefully in Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Bishoftu, Adama, Arba Minch or Hawassa, he noted, enjoys greater personal freedom than many people currently living inside Tigray.
"A Tigrayan living peacefully today in Dessie, Gondar, Bahir Dar, Addis Ababa, Bishoftu, Adama, Arba Minch, or Hawassa enjoys far greater peace and moves about with greater freedom, exempt from arbitrary roundups, than a Tigrayan currently residing within Tigray itself," he said.
"They can go about their daily lives with much more tranquility than those in Tigray."
His conclusion was sobering.
"Citizens are being terrorized in their own localities, villages and by their own children. Fleeing from one's homeland has paradoxically become the surest way to find peace."
Despite repeated provocations, the federal government has consistently chosen reconciliation over retaliation.
Yesterday, the Prime Minister reminded Parliament that the federal government financed the disarmament and reintegration of more than 60,000 former combatants, restored telecommunications, banking, aviation and other public services, reopened transport links, and even refrained from confiscating assets belonging to former TPLF leaders.
"These were assets we could have easily confiscated by fabricating simple pretexts, yet for the sake of peace, we preserved and restored them," he said.
"It was not simply a matter of the government, having won, placing the defeated force before it to sign an agreement; rather, it was an attempt to capture the hearts of armed forces who were in distress, providing them with extensive support to demonstrate a steadfast commitment to peace."
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International concern has also been growing.
The United States has imposed visa restrictions on hardline members of the Debretsion camp and their immediate family members. Former Interim Administration President Getachew Reda said the significance of the measure lies less in the travel restriction itself than in Washington's recognition of who bears responsibility for rising tensions.
"The importance of the visa restriction doesn't lie in the restriction itself but in the fact that the U.S. government has put the blame for rising tension in Ethiopia on the DT (Debretsion) camp," he said.
Human Rights Watch has likewise raised concerns over the June proclamation granting sweeping compulsory recruitment powers, warning that it mirrors some of the region's most abusive practices.
Together, these developments point to an increasingly shared understanding that the greatest threat facing Tigray today does not come from its people, but from an armed faction that continues to place conflict above peace.
Concluding his address, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia now understands where the cycle of instability originates and is prepared to defend the country's sovereignty against any future provocation.
"As we are fully aware of the true source of destabilization to Ethiopia's peace, I wish to assure this honorable parliament that we are actively building the posture necessary to repel any provocation emanating from that source," he said.
"I desire to confirm to you that we possess the full readiness and stature to defend against anything that threatens the unity and sovereignty of Ethiopia."
The people of Tigray have endured years of conflict, displacement and hardship. They deserve recovery, stability and the chance to rebuild their lives.
That future, however, depends on ending the politics that has repeatedly turned their suffering into a tool for someone else's ambitions.
