Introduction:
The political impasse in Somalia is grounded on opposition group's outright refusal for the universal suffrage electoral model proposed by the Federal Government of Somalia. The government's assertion of holding direct elections is aligned with the citizens' basic rights as stipulated by provisions in the constitution; it also reflects the government's legitimate mandate of implementing the political programs it laid out before winning the presidency in 2022.
The opposition, namely the future council's argument in rejecting direct elections proposed by the government is partly based on trust deficit and inherent lack of confidence by the opposition on the FGS, despite the government's good intention of taking confidence building measures by opening up a Somali led political space for dialogue with the opposition on many different occasions in the past, in order to iron out differences and reconcile on the transition to direct elections.
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Moreover, there are other factors that motivated the Future Council's stand against universal suffrage, including the pervasive meddling of external actors in the political independence of Somalia. External intervention has led to the formation of clientele elites that serve as proxies for foreign governments bent on destabilizing the country. Appropriation of external rent by the local political actors can only take place with the full participation of the external actors. Obviously, foreign actors' illicit financing of local elites is intended to facilitate foreign countries' interest in destabilization and disintegration, as well as to undermine political stability in the country. It's well documented that the renewed political intervention in Somalia by countries in the Middle East and HoA is aligned with their geopolitical interest around the Red Sea choke point. Subsequently, the June 3rd arms uprising in Mogadishu against the government led by a former president and former Prime Minister was the direct consequence of foreign countries' meddling in Somalia's internal politics.
With that background in context, it's important to note that the Nabad Iyo Nolol party and Somali Unity Council led by former president Farmaajo and former Prime Minister, Omar Abdirashid respectively, have chosen political dialogue over violence to reach a compromise with the government on the transition to direct elections.
The Türkiye Mediation:
The International partners' attempt to facilitate dialogue didn't succeed in reconciling the opposition namely Future Council and FGS. Subsequently, the international partners proposed Türkiye as the closest ally of Somalia to take the lead in mediating the opposition groups and the FGS. A Turkish delegation arrived from Ankara to mediate the parties, by holding talks with both the opposition and government during the first week of June 2026, the opposition's failure to agree on the establishment of technical committees representative of different opposition groups have stalled the mediation process.
The process was reconvened in the first week of July. While Türkiye is leading the mediation, the future council opposition group demanded other international partners to be included in the mediation. The mediation team composed of UK, USA, EU, and UNSOS and Türkiye have met with the three opposition groups and government representatives separately.
The oppositions' different proposals as the core foundation for political negotiations: The Somali Unity Council led by former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke and Nabad & Nolol led by former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo have presented a well articulated and detailed proposal that reflects genuine intent of reconciling their differences with the government. With respect to the electoral model both opposition parties have proposed a viable electoral model founded upon direct democratic parliamentary election based on a system of multi-political party competition.
Both have proposed two different electoral models that would be the foundation for political negotiations. Somali Unity Council proposes a Multi-Member Constituency electoral model with first past the post (FPTP) as its preferred model. Whereas, Nabad & Nolol proposes a proportional representation model. It's through a spirit of cooperation during the negotiations that a consensus can be reached on all outstanding issues pertaining to a political agreement on the electoral model.
In a stark contrast to Somali Unity Party and Nabad & Nolol political party's detailed and plausible proposal for political agreement, the Future Council has not only failed to present a substantive proposal to the mediation teams, but is stuck with indirect election. The Future Council presented "Transitional Direct Election Model 2026", a three page proposal which appears, when objectively scrutinized more like an enhanced indirect electoral model.
The FGS claims it has an intelligence report that alleges members of the Future Council have been receiving illicit financing from a foreign country. The FGS perceives the Future Council merely as a local proxy paid to wreak havoc and destabilize peace and security, and in doing so, rendered clan insurgency and coercion. Hence, the FGS questions the seriousness of negotiating with an opposition group that acts as proxy for foreign entities, by undermining the political stability of the country
Conclusion:
Somalia is at a political crossroads that requires an inclusive dialogue with a spirit of genuine intent of reconciling differences for a lasting solution to the current political quagmire. It's unfathomable to comprehend the Future Council's persistent approach of trying to dictate its terms on the government by insisting on indirect elections.
It's worth noting Liberia and DRC Congo, two countries that have striking similarities with Somalia have held direct democratic elections subsequent to peace agreement. Both countries experienced ethnic based protracted civil war that lasted more than 14 years
and 10 years respectively; at war's end and subsequent peace agreement the political elites of Liberia and Congo agreed to form transitional governments for two years. At the end of the two year transition period, the political elites have agreed to hold direct democratic elections. Compare that to Somalia's political elites, who have kept Somalia in perpetual uncertainty for more than 26 years, by transitioning indirect elections every four year cycle.
Local political elites can play a positive role and become agents for change by supporting initiatives that advance democratization and good governance or they can be an impediment to the state-building process. Unfortunately, the Somali political elites have taken a political stance that negatively affects their credibility as agents for change, and instead makes them an established party to political instability. In essence, Somalia's political elites have failed to put the country's interest ahead of their personal interest.
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Sadly, members of Future Council are alleged to serve as internal proxies for foreign countries, who are only interested in putting their personal egos ahead of their country's interest. The recent violence in Mogadishu instigated by members of the Future council reflects an opposition group that perceives violence as means for political ends. Regrettably, internal political elites have kept Somalia in perpetual uncertainty and political instability with their persistence on sustaining the status quo (indirect election) for more than 26 years.
It's time Somalia transcends from the 4.5 clan based indirect elections and embraces direct democratic elections that ensures legitimacy for the government. It's only through the public confidence that the government garners legitimacy and the mandate to exert its authority throughout the country. It's equally important to end the culture of impunity and hold those responsible for incitement of violence to account. And finally, opposition groups who condone violence over peaceful dialogue must be sanctioned as spoilers by the Federal Government of Somalia and its international partners.
Abdirizak Omar Mohamed (PhD)
Is a Member of the Federal Parliament of Somalia Email: abdirizakom@gmail.com
