If you're feeling that the numbers are tight right now, you're not alone. A look at share prices in the retail sector on the JSE suggests that investors have felt every notch as consumers have tightened their belts.

Things were looking better in South Africa before the conflict broke out in Iran. Sadly, we are a country of people who have high transport bills relative to their earnings, with few other alternatives for getting around. A sharp rise in fuel prices hits us hard.

Last week, this column included a note on Mr Price's numbers and the strong double-digit growth at Yuppiechef. Although it's a niche data point, this indicated that perhaps high-income shoppers weren't pulling back on their purchases. But with the release of numbers by Woolworths, we now have a much broader indication that even upper-LSM consumers are being more cautious.

The cleanest way to see this is Woolworths Food, as this is a great example of a staple consumer category (we all need to eat) that is transformed into a discretionary category through the use of premium product strategies. Or, put simply, we don't need to eat organic yoghurt and fancy sourdough.

In the first half of the financial year (the second half of calendar year 2025), Woolworths Food achieved growth of 7.0% in turnover and concession sales. But in the second half of the financial year (ie the first half of calendar 2026), this...