Gabon's public debt is set to rise to 94.3% of gross domestic product in 2027 from 70.9% in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund. The ratio is projected at 78.9% in 2025 and 86.1% in 2026, an increase of 23.4 percentage points over 3 years. The figures are IMF staff estimates based on data available through April 2.
The path puts Gabon at odds with sub-Saharan Africa. The debt ratio for the median country fell to 53.1% in 2025 from 57.2% in 2024 as growth, exchange rates and debt restructuring supported public finances. Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia made progress on debt workouts during the year. The region's median budget deficit narrowed to 3% of GDP.
Gabon's budget balance explains much of the increase. The deficit, including grants, widened to 8.5% of GDP in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024. The IMF expects the gap to reach 10% in 2026 and 11.2% in 2027, requiring the government to borrow as interest costs rise. Repeated primary deficits add to the debt stock before interest payments are counted.
The IMF said 21 countries in the region are running deficits above the level needed to keep debt stable. More than one-third are at high risk of debt distress or are already in distress. The fund said delayed correction raises the amount of spending cuts or revenue measures needed in later years. About one-third also face several fiscal, external, monetary or financial pressures.
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For oil exporters such as Gabon, the IMF said revenue gains from higher oil prices should be treated as temporary. It recommended using the funds to clear arrears, reduce costly domestic debt and rebuild fiscal and foreign-exchange buffers. It also called for fiscal rules that limit spending increases when commodity revenue rises and protect spending on health, education, water and energy services.
Key Takeaways
The debt ratio is a warning about Gabon's budget path, not a forecast of default. Debt near 100% of GDP can be carried if revenue remains manageable. Gabon's problem is that debt and deficits are rising together, which means borrowing is funding spending and interest. The IMF estimates were completed before the government revised its 2026 budget, cut its revenue forecast by 22% and authorized up to $1.5 billion of foreign borrowing. Gabon raised $920 million through a 7-year Eurobond with a 9.375% coupon. That sale gave the Treasury cash but added debt service through 2033. Moody's has kept Gabon at Caa2 and changed the outlook to negative, citing funding needs, market access and the risk that a debt audit could uncover more liabilities. Gabon has asked the IMF for a financing program, which could unlock funds and impose targets for revenue, spending, arrears and debt reporting. The policy choice is whether to cut the deficit before interest takes a larger share of revenue. Oil income can help, but prices move and production can fall. Using the proceeds for projects that raise output would improve the ratio. Using them for spending without returns would push the adjustment into later budgets.
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