The issue is not the reliability or otherwise of polling data, it is pollsters' interpretation of that data that policy preferences shine through, confirming alignment with some of the contestants.

The election period has arrived, and it is bumper season for opinion researchers.

While the utility of the polling industry cannot be underestimated, concerns have been expressed about its regulation in South Africa. Some have proposed legislation that governs such issues as transparency on breadth of coverage and representativity, margins of error, modelling of turnout, and any conflicts of interest in polling companies' relationships with the contestants.

This is because opinion polls can act as both cause and effect of voter sentiment. The pollsters purport merely to reflect preferences of the electorate. But polls can also inspire or demoralise an election campaign; and their interpretations can be weaponised to sway public opinion.

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Most parties consider it a fool's errand to debate or challenge opinion surveys. However, the parties themselves do rely on their own polling, which helps to refine election strategies and messages. What analysts have not comprehensively done is to assess these opinion surveys post facto, to evaluate whether the pre-election guesses closely approximate the actual outcome.

Hopefully, debate on these issues will be taken up after the 2026 municipal elections; so we do not wait for the next round of elections before another debate on the rigour, quality...