Kenya is facing a maize shortage, but it may not be able to receive any from South Africa. It's not because of a refusal to supply, but owing to Kenya's policy rigidities. This poses immense food security challenges for Kenyans.

Kenya's drought has devastated the maize crop. Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that Kenya will not have sufficient maize to meet its annual requirements. The country must now rely on imports to fulfil its needs.

Kenya may need to import about two million tonnes of maize to meet its annual requirement of four million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year.

Ordinarily, this would not be a challenge as the global market is awash with maize. But Kenya and many African countries use white maize for human consumption. And white maize is not widely produced.

The largest producers include Mexico, South Africa and Zambia. Major maize producers such as the US and South American countries generally produce yellow maize, which is used for animal feed and industrial purposes, among other things. White maize production in these countries is typically small. This leaves Kenya with few countries to explore for maize imports, as it faces a shortage.

South Africa is better placed to supply maize to Kenya, with a record maize harvest of 17.4 million tonnes (against its annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes). In fact, South Africa can export more than 3.0 million tonnes of...