Addis Abeba — Historically poor rainfall linked to El Niño is threatening Ethiopia's main harvest season (Meher), with below-average crop production expected after rainfall deficits exceeded 50% of average across much of the country, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
In its August 2026-January 2027 Food Security Outlook Update, FEWS NET said the June-to-September kiremt and karan/karma rainy seasons have been among the poorest on record, with exceptional drought conditions reported across nearly all kiremt-receiving areas.
The poor rains delayed planting and damaged crop development, particularly in northern, central and eastern Ethiopia. The main harvest, known as meher, accounts for more than 85% of national crop production and is expected to be below average, reducing food stocks and income from agricultural labor.
In northeastern areas, including along the Tekeze River and eastern Tigray, poor rainfall delayed planting, with some farmers reportedly replanting twice following failed crop establishment. FEWS NET said maize has wilted and sorghum is severely stunted in some areas, raising the likelihood of crop failure. Similar conditions are reported in lowland areas of East and West Hararghe.
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FEWS NET expects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes to persist across many drought-affected cropping and pastoral areas through January 2027, with some households likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The October harvest is expected to temporarily improve food and income access in parts of central and southern Ethiopia, but limited production is expected to sustain Crisis conditions in the worst-affected northern and eastern areas.
In Afar, pasture is described as extremely poor and sparse, affecting livestock conditions. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, poor pasture and water availability have reduced milk supplies and livestock income.
FEWS NET expects strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to bring above-average deyr/hageya rains from October, although heavy rainfall and flooding are also likely. It warned that depleted livestock herds and below-average productivity could limit improvements in household food access.
Discover moreTry Time TrackersMaritime shipping newsCurrent events summariesStream History DocumentariespoliticalBreaking news alertsNews analysis reportsAccess Premium NewsPolitical commentary subscriptionpolitics Ethiopia is entering the 2026-2027 El Niño period amid already severe humanitarian pressures, with millions of people facing the combined effects of conflict, displacement, drought, economic difficulties and repeated disruptions to agricultural production. The anticipated climate shocks are raising concerns over further deterioration in food security and livelihoods in vulnerable areas.
On 2 September 2026, Addis Standard reported that authorities in Wajirat district, in Tigray's Southeastern Zone, warned that urgent measures were needed to prevent potential loss of human and livestock lives as worsening drought pushed communities toward severe hunger and livestock losses.
The warning followed a 1 September field visit by Southeastern Zone and Wajirat district officials to Sena'ale, Genti and Tsehafti kebeles to assess emergency response efforts. Officials called for additional measures to address what they described as severe drought and the risk of famine.
Silthan Kelali, Chief Administrator of 20 Adi Wajirat, said the district had received no significant rainfall, leaving communities across all its administrative areas increasingly vulnerable to hunger and livestock losses.
Wajirat is predominantly rural, with communities largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock for their livelihoods. The district comprises 20 tabiyas, or administrative villages.
The warning from Wajirat added to growing concerns over deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Tigray, where the intensifying El Niño phenomenon has been associated with delayed rainfall, drought, destructive hailstorms and other extreme weather events.
On 24 August 2026, Addis Standard reported that a severe water and livelihood crisis was unfolding in Kori Woreda of Ethiopia's Afar Region, where residents reported widespread livestock deaths, drying water sources and mounting pressure on communities already affected by prolonged drought and inadequate rainfall.
The crisis has particularly affected pastoralist communities in Kori and surrounding areas, with residents reporting significant losses of camels, goats and sheep. Photographs shared with Addis Standard showed dead and severely emaciated livestock.
The situation emerged as Ethiopia braced for the effects of a forecast El Niño event, raising concerns over further deterioration in water availability, livestock conditions and pastoral livelihoods in drought-prone areas.
The reports from Afar and Tigray reflect growing concerns over the effects of deteriorating rainfall conditions across parts of Ethiopia, where communities dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock remain particularly vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.
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The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is seeking US$50 million to assist 4.66 million people facing worsening food insecurity and livelihood losses as Ethiopia prepares for the impacts of a forecast El Niño event.
The assistance is planned for the period from June 2026 to March 2027 and will target 114 woredas where anticipatory action against drought has been activated.
The targeted areas include parts of Afar, Amhara, northern Somali and Tigray regional states, alongside flood-prone areas in southern Somali, South Ethiopia and South West Ethiopia regions.
The strategy reflects the increasingly fragmented nature of Ethiopia's climate emergency: while some regions are confronting rainfall shortages and deteriorating drought conditions, others face the threat of destructive flooding.
The UN World Food Program has warned that climate shocks associated with the broader El Niño system could significantly worsen food insecurity across vulnerable regions, particularly in East and Southern Africa, where millions of people are already living with the consequences of repeated droughts, floods and conflict.
